A Study on the Seasonal Effects of the Tourism Demand Forecasting Models

관광 수요 예측 모형의 계절효과에 대한 연구

Kim, Sahm;Lee, Ju-Hyoung

  • Received : 20101100
  • Accepted : 20101100
  • Published : 2011.02.28


In this paper, we compared the performance of the several time series models for tourism demand forecasting. We showed that seasonal effects in the data(Japan, China, USA, and Philippines) exist in the tourism data and the forecasting accuracies are compared by the RMSE criterion.


Seasonal ARIMA model;VAR model;ECM model;tourism demand


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