DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Study on the Seasonal Effects of the Tourism Demand Forecasting Models

관광 수요 예측 모형의 계절효과에 대한 연구

Kim, Sahm;Lee, Ju-Hyoung
김삼용;이주형

  • Received : 20101100
  • Accepted : 20101100
  • Published : 2011.02.28

Abstract

In this paper, we compared the performance of the several time series models for tourism demand forecasting. We showed that seasonal effects in the data(Japan, China, USA, and Philippines) exist in the tourism data and the forecasting accuracies are compared by the RMSE criterion.

Keywords

Seasonal ARIMA model;VAR model;ECM model;tourism demand

References

  1. 윤지성, 허남균, 김삼용, 허희영 (2010). 계절형 다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 국제항공 여객 및 화물 수요예측에 관한 연구, <한국통계학회논문집>, 17, 473–481. https://doi.org/10.5351/CKSS.2010.17.3.473
  2. 허남균, 정재윤, 김삼용 (2009). 다변량 시계열 모형을 이용한 항공 수요 예측 연구, <응용통계연구>, 22, 1007–1017. https://doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2009.22.5.1007
  3. Diebold, F. X. and Kilian, L. (2000). Unit root tests are useful for selecting forecasting models, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 265–273.
  4. Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing, Econometrica, 50, 251–76.
  5. Hylleberg, S., Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. and Yoo, B. S. (1990). Seasonal integration and cointegration, Journal of Econometrics, 44, 215–238.
  6. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–54.
  7. Kulendran, N. and King, M. (1997). Forecasting international quarterly tourism flows using error correction and time series models, International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 319–327.
  8. Kulendran, N. and Wong, K. K. F. (2005). Modelling seasonality in tourism forecasting, Journal of Travel Research, 44, 163-170. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287505276605
  9. Li, G., Song, H. and Witt, S. F. (2005). Recent development in econometric modelling and forecasting, Journal of Travel Research, 44, 82–99.
  10. Lim, C. and McAleer, M. (2002). Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia, Tourism Management, 23, 389-396. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00098-X
  11. Shen, S., Li, G. and Song, H. (2009). Effect of seasonality treatment on the forecasting performance of tourism demand models, Tourism Economics, 15, 693–708.
  12. Wong, K. K. F., Song, H., Witt, S. F. and Wu, D. C. (2007). Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine?, Tourism Management, 28, 1068-1078.

Cited by

  1. A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model vol.27, pp.3, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.725