Forecasting the Demand Areas of a Factory Site: Based on a Statistical Model and Sampling Survey

공장용지 수요 추정 모형 개발 및 수요예측

Jeong, Hyeong-Chul;Han, Geun-Shik;Kim, Seong-Yong

  • Received : 20110200
  • Accepted : 20110400
  • Published : 2011.06.30


In this paper, we have considered the problems of the estimation of the gross areas of a factory site relating to the areas of industrial complex lands based on a statistical forecasting model and the results of a sampling survey. In respect to the data of a gross areas of a factory site, we have only the sizes from 1981-2003. In 2009, the Korea Industrial Complex Corp. conducted a sampling survey to estimate its bulk size, and investigate the demands of its sizes for the next five years. In this study, we have adopted the sampling survey results, and have created a statistical growth model for the gross areas of a factory site to improve the prediction for the areas of a factory site. The three-different parts of data: the results of areas of a factory site by Korea National Statistical Office, imputation results by the statistical forecasting model, and sampling survey results have used as the basis for analysis. The combination of the three-different parts of data has created a new forecasting value of the areas of a factory site through the spline smoothing method.


Areas of a factory site;forecasting model;sampling survey;spline smoothing


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