Evaluating the Items Derived from Technology Foresight

기술예측결과로 도출된 아이템의 재평가 방법

  • 박영욱 (한국과학기술정보연구원) ;
  • 홍성화 (한국과학기술정보연구원) ;
  • 이준영 (한국과학기술정보연구원) ;
  • 김강회 (한국과학기술정보연구원) ;
  • 여운동 (한국과학기술정보연구원)
  • Received : 2012.10.11
  • Accepted : 2012.11.14
  • Published : 2012.12.28


Many organizations release future emerging technologies information because it is very important to companies. However, unfortunately there are few organizations who assess the emerging technologies they thought a few years ago. We made a framework for assessing the brightness of future emerging technologies rapidly and cost-effectively. We came up with 2 new concepts for it. One is product potential and the other is consumption potential. Product potential is relative probability that emerging technology is implemented to real products. It is resulted from analyzing patents related with emerging technology. Consumption potential is relative probability that consumers buy the products. The number of appearances of emerging technology in the mass media is related to consumption potential. We compared the brightness between LED and LCD technologies with proposed evaluating framework, and came to know that LCD has more brightness over LED.


Future Emerging Technology;Product Potential;Consumption Potential


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