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Bayesian Analysis of Korean Alcohol Consumption Data Using a Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit Model

영 과잉 순서적 프로빗 모형을 이용한 한국인의 음주자료에 대한 베이지안 분석

  • Received : 2012.01.13
  • Accepted : 2012.04.12
  • Published : 2012.04.30

Abstract

Excessive zeroes are often observed in ordinal categorical response variables. An ordinary ordered Probit model is not appropriate for zero-inflated data especially when there are many different sources of generating 0 observations. In this paper, we apply a two-stage zero-inflated ordered Probit (ZIOP) model which incorporate the zero-flated nature of data, propose a Bayesian analysis of a ZIOP model, and apply the method to alcohol consumption data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics, Korea. In the first stage of a ZIOP model, a Probit model is introduced to divide the non-drinkers into genuine non-drinkers who do not participate in drinking due to personal beliefs or permanent health problems and potential drinkers who did not drink at the time of the survey but have the potential to become drinkers. In the second stage, an ordered probit model is applied to drinkers that consists of zero-consumption potential drinkers and positive consumption drinkers. The analysis results show that about 30% of non-drinkers are genuine non-drinkers and hence the Korean alcohol consumption data has the feature of zero-inflated data. A study on the marginal effect of each explanatory variable shows that certain explanatory variables have effects on the genuine non-drinkers and potential drinkers in opposite directions, which may not be detected by an ordered Probit model.

Keywords

Zero-inflation;Markov chain Monte Carlo;Posterior distribution;Ordinal categorical data

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Acknowledgement

Supported by : 한국연구재단