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Estimation of Future Death Burden of High Temperatures from Climate Change

기후변화로 인한 고온의 미래 사망부담 추정

  • Received : 2012.10.15
  • Accepted : 2012.01.07
  • Published : 2013.02.28

Abstract

Objectives: Elevated temperatures during summer months have been reported since the early 20th century to be associated with increased daily mortality. However, future death impacts of high temperatures resulting from climate change could be variously estimated in consideration of the future changes in historical temperature-mortality relationships, mortality, and population. This study examined the future death burden of high temperatures resulting from climate change in Seoul over the period of 2001-2040. Methods: We calculated yearly death burden attributable to high temperatures stemming from climate change in Seoul from 2001-2040. These future death burdens from high temperature were computed by multiplying relative risk, temperature, mortality, and population at any future point. To incorporate adaptation, we assumed future changes in temperature-mortality relationships (i.e. threshold temperatures and slopes), which were estimated as short-term temperature effects using a Poisson regression model. Results: The results show that climate change will lead to a substantial increase in summer high temperature-related death burden in the future, even considering adaptation by the population group. The yearly death burden attributable to elevated temperatures ranged from approximately 0.7 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001-2010 to about 1.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Seoul in 2036-2040. Conclusions: This study suggests that adaptation strategies and communication regarding future health risks stemming from climate change are necessary for the public and for the political leadership of South Korea.

Keywords

adaptation;climate change;future death burden;high temperature;Seoul

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Cited by

  1. The Impact of Environmental Health Factors on Extreme-heat Vulnerability Assessment in a Metropolitan City vol.39, pp.6, 2013, https://doi.org/10.5668/JEHS.2013.39.6.492
  2. Projection of future hot weather events and potential population exposure to this in South Korea vol.72, pp.1, 2017, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01446

Acknowledgement

Grant : 미래 건강부담 추정의 영향요인 고찰-기후변화에 따른 폭염 증가를 중심으로

Supported by : 한국환경정책.평가연구원