Temperature Modifies the Association between PM10 and Mortality in Seoul

서울시 미세먼지(PM10)로 인한 사망영향에 대한 기온의 수정효과

  • Received : 2012.12.05
  • Accepted : 2013.02.25
  • Published : 2013.02.28


Objectives: Many studies have shown that air pollution and temperature have adverse effects on mortality and morbidity. But the interactive effect between air pollution and temperature on mortality has been rarely investigated. This study aims to explore whether temperature modifies the associations between ambient particulate matter less than $10{\mu}m$ in diameter ($PM_{10}$) and mortality in Seoul, Korea. Methods: The time-series analysis examined the effect of the interaction between $PM_{10}$ and temperature on mortality from 1999 to 2010 in Seoul. In order to examine the interactive effect between $PM_{10}$ and temperature on mortality, we fitted a response surface model controlling the time-trends and meteorological variables. The effects of $PM_{10}$ were stratified by temperature stratum to quantitatively estimate the $PM_{10}$-health outcome associations. Results: When temperature was low (below the threshold temperature), the percentage increases per $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase of $PM_{10}$ increased 0.38% (95% Confidence Interval[CI]: 0.09~0.68%) and 0.31% (95% CI: - 0.07~0.68%) of mortality in the all age group and ${\geq}65$ year age group, respectively. When temperature was high (above the threshold temperature), the percentage increases per $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase of $PM_{10}$ increased 1.09% (95% CI: 0.47~1.72%) and 1.35% (95% CI: 0.65~2.06%) for mortality in the all age group and ${\geq}65$ year age group, respectively. Conclusion: The results of this study showed strong modification by temperature in the association between $PM_{10}$ and mortality. We recommend that public health strategies to minimize adverse health impact of heat and $PM_{10}$ should be considered in control and prevention measures for air pollution and weather-related health impacts.


particulate matter;temperature;effect modification;mortality;response surface model


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Grant : 기후변화에 따른 대기오염 및 건강영향 연구(II)

Supported by : 국립환경과학원