# 확률론적 응답면 기법을 이용한 저수지 제체의 침투수량 해석

• 봉태호 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
• 손영환 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학과) ;
• 노수각 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
• 최우석 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원)
• Accepted : 2013.05.03
• Published : 2013.05.31

#### Abstract

The seepage quantity analysis of reservoir embankment is very important for assessment of embankment safety. However, the conventional analysis does not consider uncertainty of soil properties. Permeability is known that the coefficient of variation is larger than other soil properties and seepage quantity is highly dependent on the permeability of embankment. Therefore, probabilistic analysis should be carried out for seepage analysis. To designers, however, the probabilistic analysis is not an easy task. In this paper, the method that can be performed probabilistic analysis easily and efficiently through the numerical analysis based commercial program is proposed. Stochastic response surface method is used for approximate the limit state function and when estimating the coefficients, the moving least squares method is applied in order to reduce local error. The probabilistic analysis is performed by LHC-MCS through the response surface. This method was applied to two type (homogeneous, core zone) earth dams and permeability of embankment body and core are considered as random variables. As a result, seepage quantity was predicted effectively by response surface and probabilistic analysis could be successfully implemented.

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