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Temporospatial clustering analysis of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in South Korea, 2010~2011

시공간 클러스터링 분석을 이용한 2010~2011 국내 발생 구제역 전파양상

  • Bae, Sun-Hak (College of Education, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Shin, Yeun-Kyung (Animal, Plant and Fisheries Quarantine and Inspection Agency) ;
  • Kim, Byunghan (Animal, Plant and Fisheries Quarantine and Inspection Agency) ;
  • Pak, Son-Il (College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 배선학 (강원대학교 사범대학) ;
  • 신연경 (농림수산검역검사본부) ;
  • 김병한 (농림수산검역검사본부) ;
  • 박선일 (강원대학교 수의과대학 및 동물의학종합연구소)
  • Received : 2012.10.22
  • Accepted : 2013.02.04
  • Published : 2013.03.31

Abstract

To investigate the transmission pattern of geographical area and temporal trends of the 2010~2011 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Korea, and to explore temporal intervals at which spatial clustering of FMD cases space-time analysis based on georeferenced database of 3,575 burial sites, from 30 November 2010 to 23 February 2011, was performed. The cases represent approximately 98.1% of all infected farms (n = 3,644) during the same period. Descriptive maps of spatial patterns of the outbreaks were generated by ArcGIS. Spatial Scan Statistics, using SaTScan software, was applied to investigate geographical clusters of FMD cases across the country. Overall, spatial heterogeneity was identified, and the transmission pattern was different by province. Cattle have more clusters in number but smaller in size, as compared to the swine population. In addition, spatiotemporal analysis and the comparison of clustering patterns between the first 7 days and days 8 to 14 of the outbreak revealed that the strongest spatial clustering was identified at the 7-day interval, although clustering over longer intervals (8~14 days) was also observed. We further discussed the importance of time period elapsed between FMD-suspected notice and the date of confirmation, and emphasized the necessity of region-specific and species-specific control measures.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 농림수산검역검사본부

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