An Analysis on the Causal Relation Among SMP, Base-Load Share, LNG Import Price, and Exchange Rate

전력계통한계가격(SMP)과 기저발전비율, LNG도입가격, 환율 간 인과관계 분석

  • Received : 2014.05.19
  • Accepted : 2014.05.13
  • Published : 2014.07.31


This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002~2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP.


Causality;SMP;Base-load Share;LNG Import Price;Exchange Rate;VECM


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