Trends and Projected Estimates of GHG Emissions from Indian Livestock in Comparisons with GHG Emissions from World and Developing Countries

Abstract

This study presents trends and projected estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock of India vis-$\grave{a}$-vis world and developing countries over the period 1961 to 2010 estimated based on IPCC guidelines. World enteric methane emission (EME) increased by 54.3% (61.5 to $94.9{\times}10^9kg$ annually) from the year 1961 to 2010, and the highest annual growth rate (AGR) was noted for goat (2.0%), followed by buffalo (1.57%) and swine (1.53%). Global EME is projected to increase to $120{\times}10^9kg$ by 2050. The percentage increase in EME by Indian livestock was greater than world livestock (70.6% vs 54.3%) between the years 1961 to 2010, and AGR was highest for goat (1.91%), followed by buffalo (1.55%), swine (1.28%), sheep (1.25%) and cattle (0.70%). In India, total EME was projected to grow by $18.8{\times}10^9kg$ in 2050. Global methane emission from manure (MEM) increased from $6.81{\times}10^9kg$ in 1961 to $11.4{\times}10^9kg$ in 2010 (an increase of 67.6%), and is projected to grow to $15{\times}10^9kg$ by 2050. In India, the annual MEM increased from $0.52{\times}10^9kg$ to $1.1{\times}10^9kg$ (with an AGR of 1.57%) in this period, which could increase to $1.54{\times}10^9kg$ in 2050. Nitrous oxide emission from manure in India could be $21.4{\times}10^6kg$ in 2050 from $15.3{\times}10^6kg$ in 2010. The AGR of global GHG emissions changed a small extent (only 0.11%) from developed countries, but increased drastically (1.23%) for developing countries between the periods of 1961 to 2010. Major contributions to world GHG came from cattle (79.3%), swine (9.57%) and sheep (7.40%), and for developing countries from cattle (68.3%), buffalo (13.7%) and goat (5.4%). The increase of GHG emissions by Indian livestock was less (74% vs 82% over the period of 1961 to 2010) than the developing countries. With this trend, world GHG emissions could reach $3,520{\times}10^9kg$ $CO_2$-eq by 2050 due to animal population growth driven by increased demands for meat and dairy products in the world.

Keywords

Greenhouse Gas;Methane;Nitrous Oxide;Livestock;India;Developing Countries

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