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A Study on Estimate Model for Peak Time Congestion

Kim, Deug-Bong;Yoo, Sang-Lok

  • Received : 2014.06.02
  • Accepted : 2014.06.25
  • Published : 2014.06.30

Abstract

This study applied regression analysis to evaluate the impact of hourly average congestion calculated by bumper model in the congested area of each passage of each port on the peak time congestion, to suggest the model formula that can predict the peak time congestion. This study conducted regression analysis of hourly average congestion and peak time congestion based on the AIS survey study of 20 ports in Korea. As a result of analysis, it was found that the hourly average congestion has a significant impact on the peak time congestion and the prediction model formula was derived. This formula($C_p=4.457C_a+29.202$) can be used to calculate the peak time congestion based on the predicted hourly average congestion.

Keywords

Marine traffic congestion;Hourly average congestion;Peak time congestion;Bumper model;AIS survey;Regression analysis

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