- Volume 13 Issue 3
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A Study of Sales Increase and/or Decrease by Campaign Using a Differential Equation Model of the Growth Phenomenon
- Horinouchi, Kunihito ;
- Takabayashi, Naoki ;
- Yamamoto, Hisashi ;
- Ohba, Masaaki
- Received : 2014.01.20
- Accepted : 2014.08.06
- Published : 2014.09.30
With society becoming more advanced and complex, the required management engineering makes essential the development of human resources that can propose solutions for problems of new phenomena from a different perspective. As an example of such phenomena, we note a consumer electronics 'Eco-point' system campaign in this study. To mitigate global warming, revitalize the economy, and encourage the adoption of terrestrial digital compatible TVs, the consumer electronics Eco-point system campaign was implemented in May 2009 in Japan. In this study, we note a model which is constant term with exponential curve with notion of the growth phenomenon (Nakagiri and Kurita, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 2002). In our study, we call this model the 'differential equation model of the growth phenomenon.' This model represents a phenomenon with a hierarchical structure for capturing the properties of n species. In this study, we propose a new model which can represent not only the impact of largescale campaigns but also seasonal factors. Accordingly, we understand the phenomenon of fluctuation of sales of some products caused by large-scale campaigns and predict the fluctuation of sales. The final goal of this study is to develop human resources that can propose provision and solution for pre-consumption and reactionary decline in demand by understanding the impact of large-scale campaigns. As the first step of this goal, our objective is to propose a new regression method with different conventional perspective that can describe the fluctuation of sales caused by large-scale campaigns and show the possibility of new management engineering education.
Regression;Prediction;Differential Equation Model;Subsidiary Growth Phenomenon
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