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An Analysis of Uncertainties in Energy Category: Estimation by using Tier 1 Method

에너지분야 온실가스 인벤토리의 불확도에 관한 연구: Tier 1 에러전파방법을 이용한 추정

  • Hwang, In Chang (Asian Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability, Seoul National University, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam) ;
  • Jin, Sang Hyeon (School of Public Administration, Kyungpook National University)
  • 황인창 (서울대학교 아시아에너지환경지속가능발전 연구소, 네덜란드 암스테르담 자유대학) ;
  • 진상현 (경북대학교 행정학부)
  • Received : 2014.04.05
  • Accepted : 2014.06.18
  • Published : 2014.06.30

Abstract

IPCC requires the national uncertainties which show how credible the emission of greenhouse gases is. But the Korean government did not submit the total uncertainties, only the detailed uncertainties by items. Also it uses the default values of IPCC including some missing values. This paper tries to estimate the total uncertainties of energy by categories, which accounts for 85.3% in national emission of greenhouse gases. Concretely, it uses Tier 1 method suggested by IPCC. As a result of the analysis, the uncertainties in energy category are 3.4% similar to Finland's. But there was a big difference among greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide 2.7%, methane 116% and nitrous oxide 473%. So this paper suggests Korean government need to improve not only the activity but also the emission factor of data in order to reduce the national uncertainties in energy category.

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