A Development of Traffic Accident Models at 4-legged Signalized Intersections using Random Parameter : A Case of Busan Metropolitan City

Random Parameter를 이용한 4지 신호교차로에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발 : 부산광역시를 대상으로

Park, Minho;Lee, Dongmin;Yoon, Chunjoo;Kim, Young Rok

  • Received : 2015.06.10
  • Accepted : 2015.12.02
  • Published : 2015.12.15


PURPOSES : This study tries to develop the accident models of 4-legged signalized intersections in Busan Metropolitan city with random parameter in count model to understanding the factors mainly influencing on accident frequencies. METHODS : To develop the traffic accidents modeling, this study uses RP(random parameter) negative binomial model which enables to take account of heterogeneity in data. By using RP model, each intersection's specific geometry characteristics were considered. RESULTS : By comparing the both FP(fixed parameter) and RP modeling, it was confirmed the RP model has a little higher explanation power than the FP model. Out of 17 statistically significant variables, 4 variables including traffic volumes on minor roads, pedestrian crossing on major roads, and distance of pedestrian crossing on major/minor roads are derived as having random parameters. In addition, the marginal effect and elasticity of variables are analyzed to understand the variables'impact on the likelihood of accident occurrences. CONCLUSIONS : This study shows that the uses of RP is better fitted to the accident data since each observations'specific characteristics could be considered. Thus, the methods which could consider the heterogeneity of data is recommended to analyze the relationship between accidents and affecting factors(for example, traffic safety facilities or geometrics in signalized 4-legged intersections).


signalized intersection;accident model;random parameter;count model;heterogeneity


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