An Outlook of Agricultural Drought in Jeonju Area under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition

기후변화 시나리오에 근거한 전주지역의 농업가뭄 전망

  • Received : 2015.10.15
  • Accepted : 2015.10.30
  • Published : 2015.12.30


In order to figure out the future drought characteristics of the Jeonju plains, the major crop production area in Korea, daily agricultural drought indexes based on soil water balance were calculated for the relevant 12.5 km by 12.5 km grid cell using the weather data generated by the RCP8.5 climate scenario during 1951-2100. The calculations were grouped into five climatological normal years, the past (1951-1980), the present (1981-2010), and the three futures (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the soil moisture conditions in early spring, worst for both the past and present normal years, will ameliorate gradually in the future and the crop water stress in spring season was projected to become negligible by the end of this century. Furthermore, the drought frequency in early spring was projected to diminish, resulting in rare occurrence of spring drought by that time. However, the result also showed that the soil moisture conditions during the summer season (when most crops grow in Jeonju plain) will deteriorate and the drought incidence will be more frequent than in the past or present period.


Drought index;Agriculture;RCP8.5 scenario;Residual soil moisture


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Supported by : 농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원