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Short-term Wind Farm Power Forecasting Using Multivariate Analysis to Improve Wind Power Efficiency

풍력발전 설비 효율화를 위한 다변량 분석을 이용한 풍력발전단지 단기 출력 예측 방법

  • Received : 2015.04.21
  • Accepted : 2015.06.25
  • Published : 2015.07.30

Abstract

This paper presents short-term wind farm power forecasting method using multivariate analysis and time series. Based on factor analysis, the proposed method makes new independent variables which newly composed by raw independent variables such as wind speed, ramp rate, wind power. Newly created variables are used in the time series model for forecasting wind farm power. To demonstrate the improved accuracy, the proposed method is compared with persistence model commonly used as reference in wind power forecasting using data from Jeju Island. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method.

Keywords

Wind Power Forecasting;Multivariate Analysis;Time Series Model

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