- Volume 33 Issue 1
DOI QR Code
A Comparative Study on the Forecasting Accuracy of Econometric Models :Domestic Total Freight Volume in South Korea
계량경제모형간 국내 총화물물동량 예측정확도 비교 연구
- Chung, Sung Hwan (Department of Transportation Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
- Kang, Kyung Woo (Department of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University)
- Received : 2014.02.03
- Accepted : 2014.11.02
- Published : 2015.02.28
This study compares the forecasting accuracy of five econometric models on domestic total freight volume in South Korea. Applied five models are as follows: Ordinary Least Square model, Partial Adjustment model, Reduced Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Vector Autoregressive model, Time Varying Parameter model. Estimating models and forecasting are carried out based on annual data of domestic freight volume and an index of industrial production during 1970~2011. 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year ahead forecasting performance of five models was compared using the recursive forecasting method. Additionally, two forecasting periods were set to compare forecasting accuracy according to the size of future volatility. As a result, the Time Varying Parameter model showed the best accuracy for forecasting periods having fluctuations, whereas the Vector Autoregressive model showed better performance for forecasting periods with gradual changes.
- Baek S. H., Kim S. S. (2008), Estimation of Air Travel Demand Models and Elasticities for Jeju-mainlad Domestic Routes, J. Korean Soc. Transp., 26(1), Korean Society of Transportation, 51-63.
- Breusch T. (1978), Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models, Australian Economic Papers, 17(31), 334-355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
- Choi C. H. (2002), Development of Commodity Generation Models Using GDP, KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 22(3D), Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 351-362.
- Dargay J. M., Hanly M. (2002), The Demand for Local Bus Services in England, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 36(1), 73-91.
- Godfrey L. G. (1978), Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Contain Lagged Dependent Variables, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 46(6), 1303-1310. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913830
- Granger C. W. J., Newbold P. (1974), Spurious Regressions in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
- Jarque C. M., Bera A. K. (1980), Efficient Tests for Normality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals, Economics Letters, 6(3), 255-259. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(80)90024-5
- Korea Transport DataBase (KTDB) (2014), Domestic/International Freight Transport Records, Retrieved From http://www.ktdb.go.kr/en/web/guest/291.
- Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) (2014), By Metropolitan Area/By Industry in IIP, Retrieved From http://kosis.kr/eng/.
- Meersman H., Van de Voorde E. (2013), The Relationship Between Economic Activity and Freight Transport, Freight Transport Modelling, Bingley, Emerald, 17-43.
- Min K. C., Jun Y. I., Ha H. K. (2013), Forecasting the Air Cargo Demand With Seasonal ARIMA Model: Focusing on ICN to EU Route, J. Korean Soc. Transp., 31(3), Korean Society of Transportation, 3-18. https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.003
- Ramsey J. B. (1969), Test for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least Squares Regression Analysis, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological), 31(2), 350-371.
- Shen S., Fowkes T., Whiteing T., Johnson D. (2009), Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Freight Transport Demand in Great Britain, Proceedings of European Transport Conference.
- Song H., Witt S. F., Jensen T. C. (2003), Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models, International Journal of Forecasting, 19(1), 123-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00134-0
- Song K. S. (2007), A Comparison of Accuracy Between Univariate and Econometric Models, Journal of Tourism Sciences, 31(4), The Tourism Sciences Society of Korea, 33-50.
- Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) (2014), Korea Statistical Yearbook, Retrieved From http://kostat.go.kr/portal/korea/index.action.
- Thomas R. L. (1997), Modern Econometrics: An Introduction, Harlow, Addison-Wesley.
- West R., Rubin D., Villa J. C. (2011), Identification and Evaluation of Freight Demand Factors (No.NCFRP Project 11).
- White H. (1980), A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 48(4), 817-838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934