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Estimation of Design Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenario in Jeju Island

기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 제주도 확률강우량 산정

Lee, Jun-Ho;Yang, Sung-Kee;Jung, Woo-Yul;Yang, Won-Seok
이준호;양성기;정우열;양원석

  • Received : 2014.08.21
  • Accepted : 2014.11.16
  • Published : 2015.04.30

Abstract

As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

Keywords

Design rainfall;Climate change scenario;Gumbel;Quantile mapping method

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Cited by

  1. Runoff Analysis of Climate Change Scenario in Gangjung Basin vol.24, pp.12, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2015.24.12.1649
  2. Analysis of Water Level Fluctuations according to Groundwater Development and Pumping Duration vol.25, pp.1, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5322/JESI.2016.25.1.135

Acknowledgement

Grant : 제주형 물순환 해석 및 수자원 관리 기반 구축 연구

Supported by : 국토교통부