A Study on the Forecasting of Employment Demand in Kenya Logistics Industry



Shin, Yong-John;Kim, Hyun-Duk;Lee, Sung-Yhun;Han, Hee-Jung;Pai, Hoo-Seok

  • 투고 : 2015.02.05
  • 심사 : 2015.04.23
  • 발행 : 2015.04.30


This study focused on the alternative to estimate the demand of employment in Kenya logistics. First of all, it investigated the importance and necessity of search about the present circumstance of the country's industry. Next, it reviewed respectively the concept and limitation of several previous models for employment, including Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA; ROA, Netherlands; IER (Institute for Employment Research), UK; and IAB, Germany. In regard to the demand forecasting of employers in logistics, it could anticipate more realistically the future demand by the time-lag approach. According to the findings, if value of output record 733,080 KSH million in 2015 and 970,640 in 2020, compared to 655,222 in 2013, demand on wage employment in logistics industry would be reached up to 95,860 in 2015 and 104,329 in 2020, compared to about 89,600 in 2012. To conclude, this study showed the more rational numbers about the demand forecasting of employment than the previous researches and displayed the systematic approach to estimate industry manpower in logistics.


Demand estimation;Forecasting employment;Regression analysis;Kenya logistics industry;Time-lag model


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