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The Supply Shortage Effects of Oil Refinery Industry in Korea

국내 정유산업의 공급지장효과 분석

  • Cho, Yong-Cheol (Department of Energy Policy, Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Lee, Yong-Hwan (Department of Energy Policy, Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Yoo, Seung-Hoon (Department of Energy Policy, Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology)
  • 조용철 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과) ;
  • 이용환 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과) ;
  • 유승훈 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원 에너지정책학과)
  • Received : 2015.08.10
  • Accepted : 2015.09.16
  • Published : 2015.09.30

Abstract

As the petroleum products produced from the Oil refinery industry (ORI), a national key industry in Korea, are supplied to other industries as an intermediate goods, the supply shortage of ORI has a large impact on the national economy. This paper attempts to analyze the supply shortage effects which are defined as the negative impact of one won of supply failure in the ORI on the production of other industries. To this end, an inter-industry analysis using an input-output (I-O) table describing inter-industry flow of intermediate goods is applied. More concretely, the supply-driven model is employed over the period 1990-2012. In addition, the results are compared with those for shipbuilding, semiconductor, and steel industries. The results show that the supply shortage effects are computed to be 0.9205 won when using 2012 I-O table. More specifically, the supply shortage effects on chemical products and transportation industries are computed to be 0.2113 and 0.1140, which are relatively large, The supply shortage effect of ORI is smaller than that of steel industry (1.4131 won), but larger than that of shipbuilding industry (0.0586 won) and that of semiconductor industry (0.1111 won).

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 서울과학기술대학교

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