Design Flood Estimation in the Hwangguji River Watershed under Climate and Land Use Changes Scenario

기후변화 및 토지이용변화 시나리오를 고려한 황구지천 유역의 설계홍수량 평가

Kim, Jihye;Park, Jihoon;Song, Jung-Hun;Jun, Sang Min;Kang, Moon Seong

  • Received : 2015.01.29
  • Accepted : 2016.01.19
  • Published : 2016.01.30


Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme flood exceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected by two main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should be considered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land use change scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floods of 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulation described that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changes in design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligible because the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.


Climate change;land use change;RCP scenarios;design flood;CLUE;HEC-HMS


  1. Bergstrom, S., B. Carlsson, M. Gardelin, G. Lindstrom, A. Pettersson, and M. Rummukainen, 2001. Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Climate Research 16: 101-112.
  2. Bronstert, A., D. Niehoff, and G. Burger, 2002. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modelling capabilities. Hydrological Processes 16: 509-529.
  3. Choi, D., M. S. Keem, N. W. Kim, and S. Kim, 2009. An analysis of the effect of climate change on Byeongseong stream's hydrologic and water quality responses using CGCM's future climate information. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 42(11): 921-931 (in Korean).
  4. Cuo, L., T. K. Beyene, N. Voisin, F. Su, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. Alberti, and J. E. Richey, 2011. Effects of mid-twenty-first century climate and land cover change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington. Hydrological Processes 25: 1729-1753.
  5. Gul, G. O., D. Rosbjerg, A. Gul, M. Ondracek, and K. Dikgola, 2010. Assessing climate change impacts on river flows and environmental flow requirements at catchment scale. Ecohydrology 3(1): 28-40.
  6. Heo, J.-H., and W. Nam, 2010. Study of extreme flood discharge considering climate change. Magazine of Korea Water Resources Association 43(8): 28-35 (in Korean).
  7. Hurtt, G. C., L. P. Chini, S. Frolking, R. A. Betts, J. Feddema, G. Fischer, J. P. Fisk, K. Hibbard, R. A. Houghton, A. Janetos, C. D. Jones, G. Kindermann, T. Kinoshita, K. K. Goldewijk, K. Riahi, E. Shevliakova, S. Smith, E. Stehfest, A. Thomson, P. Thornton, D. P. van Vuuren, and Y. P. Wang, 2011. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climate Change 109: 117-161.
  8. Kay, A. L., N. S. Reynard, and R. G. Jones, 2006a. RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and validation. Journal of Hydrology 318: 151-162.
  9. Kay, A. L., R. G. Jones, and N. S. Reynard, 2006b. RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change results. Journal of Hydrology 318: 163-172.
  10. Kim, B. S., H. S. Kim, B. H. Seoh, and N. W. Kim, 2004. Impact of climate change on Yongdam dam basin. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 37(3): 185-193 (in Korean).
  11. Kim, B. S., S. J. Kim, H. S. Kim, and H. D. Jun, 2010. An impact assessment of climate and landuse change on water resources in the Han river. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 43(3): 309-323 (in Korean).
  12. Kim, H. K., M. S. Kang, E. J. Lee, and S. W. Park, 2011. Climate and land use changes impacts on hydrology in a rural small watershed. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 53(6): 75-84 (in Korean).
  13. Kim, J., J. Park, I. Song, J.-H. Song, S. M. Jun, and M. S. Kang, 2015. Analysis of land use change using RCP-based Dyna-CLUE model in the Hwangguji river watershed. Journal of the Korean Society of Rural Planning 21(2): 33-49 (in Korean).
  14. Kim, W. G., and T. S. Ryu, 2011. Strategy of flood control capacity enhancement on existing multipurpose dams to the effect of climate change. Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association 44(2): 23-28 (in Korean).
  15. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT), 2012. Calculation of design flood (in Korean).
  16. Na, Y.-S., 2010. A study on the variation of design rainfall and flood due to climate change. Master's thesis, Sejong University (in Korean).
  17. National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), 2011. Climate change scenario report for IPCC AR5, 17-46 (in Korean).
  18. National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), 2012. Climate change scenarios corresponding to IPCC assessment report 5th in 2012 (in Korean).
  19. Park, J., M. S. Kang, and I. Song, 2012. Bias correction of RCP-based future extreme precipitation using a quantile mapping method; for 20-weather stations of South Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 54(6): 133-142 (in Korean).
  20. Verburg, P. H., and K. P. Overmars, 2009. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecology 24: 1167-1181.
  21. Verburg, P. H., W. Soepboer, A. Veldkamp, R. Limpiada, V. Espaldon, and S. S. A. Mastura, 2002. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environmental Management 30(3): 391-405.


Supported by : 한국연구재단