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Prediction of Return Periods of Sewer Flooding Due to Climate Change in Major Cities

기후변화에 따른 주요 도시의 하수도 침수 재현기간 예측

Park, Kyoohong;Yu, Soonyu;Byambadorj, Elbegjargal
박규홍;유순유;뱜바도지 엘베자르갈

  • Received : 2015.11.23
  • Accepted : 2016.01.18
  • Published : 2016.02.28

Abstract

In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution models with rainfall data collected in major cities of Korea to reevaluate the return period of sewer flooding in those cities. As a result, the probable rainfall for GEV and Gumbel distribution in non-stationary state both increased with time(t), compared to the stationary probable rainfall. Considering the reliability of ${\xi}_1$, a variable reflecting the increase of storm events due to climate change, the reliability of the rainfall duration for Seoul, Daegu, and Gwangju in the GEV distribution was over 90%, indicating that the probability of rainfall increase was high. As for the Gumbel distribution, Wonju, Daegu, and Gwangju showed the higher reliability while Daejeon showed the lower reliability than the other cities. In addition, application of the maximum annual rainfall change rate (${\xi}_1{\cdot}t$) to the location parameter made possible the prediction of return period by time, therefore leading to the evaluation of design recurrence interval.

Keywords

Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution;Gumbel distribution;climate change;return period;sewer flooding

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Acknowledgement

Supported by : 하수관거관리기술연구단