Estimation of Annual Minimal Probable Precipitation Under Climate Change in Major Cities

기후변화에 따른 주요 도시의 연간 최소 확률강우량 추정

Park, Kyoohong;Yu, Soonyu;Byambadorj, Elbegjargal
박규홍;유순유;뱜바도지 엘베자르갈

  • Received : 2015.11.23
  • Accepted : 2016.01.18
  • Published : 2016.02.28


On account of the increase in water demand and climate change, droughts are in great concern for water resources planning and management. In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using Weibull distribution model with 40-year records of annual minimum rainfall depth collected in major cities of Korea. As a result, the non-stationary minimum probable rainfall was expected to decrease, compared with the stationary probable rainfall. The reliability of ${\xi}_1$, a variable reflecting the decrease of the minimum rainfall depth due to climate change, in Wonju, Daegu, and Busan was over 90%, indicating the probability that the minimal rainfall depths in those city decrease is high.


Drought;Weibull distribution;climate change;minimum probable rainfall depth


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