한반도의 확률론적 지진위험도 분석 - 확률론적 최대지반가속도(PGA)

DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

경재복;김민주;이상준;김준경
Kyung, Jai-Bok;Kim, Min-Ju;Lee, Sang-Jun;Kim, Jun-Kyung

  • 투고 : 2016.01.26
  • 심사 : 2016.02.25
  • 발행 : 2016.02.29

초록

본 연구의 목적은 한반도의 고유한 지진-지체구조 특성이 반영된 입력자료를 사용하여 한반도의 확률론적 지진위험지도를 제작하는 것이다. 지진입력자료들은 다수의 전문가에 의해 제공받았으며, 최대지반가속도(Peak Ground Acceleration: PGA)에 대한 지진위험도값은 USGS 지진재해도 프로그램(Harmsen, 2008)을 일부 수정하여 산출하였다. 전문가들로부터 제공된 지진입력자료들의 불확실성은 논리수목 방법을 적용하여 최종 지진재해도 계산에 반영하였다. PGA 분포 패턴은 각 전문가들이 제시한 면적지진원도 형상에 매우 민감하며, 그 형상과 유사한 모양을 보여준다. 지진위험지도는 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500년 동안 초과확률 10%에 해당하는 최대지반가속도를 등치선 형태로 나타내었다. 모든 재현주기에서 황해도 일대를 제외한 북한지역이 남한지역보다 현저하게 낮은(약 50%) PGA 기댓값을 나타낸다. 전체적으로 남한의 동남부 일대와 북한의 황해도 일대가 약간 높은 값을 보이면서 북서-남동 방향으로 등치도 값의 분포가 신장되어 나타남을 보인다. 또한, 강원도 북부 일대가 타 지역에 비해 약간 낮아지는 경향을 보인다. 본 연구결과는 국내 주요 구조물의 내진성능 향상을 위한 기초자료로서 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

키워드

확률론적 지진위험도;한반도;최대지반가속도;초과확률;논리수목

참고문헌

  1. Abrahamson, N.A. and Silva, W.J., 2008, Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva PGA ground-motion relations, Earthquake Spectra, 24, 1, 67-97. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2924360
  2. Atkinson, G.M. and Boore, D.M., 1997, Some comparisons between recent ground motion relations, Seismological Research Letters, 68, 1, 24-40. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.24
  3. Atkinson, G.M., and Silva, W.J., 2000, Stochastic modeling of California ground motions, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90, 255-274. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990064
  4. Boore, D.M. and Atkinson, G.M., 2008, Ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.001s and 10.0s, Earthquake Spectra, 24, 1, 99-138.
  5. Boore, D.M. and Atkinson, G.M., 2011, Modifications to existing ground-motion prediction equations in light of new data, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(3), 1121-1135. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100270
  6. Frankel, A., Mueller,C., Barnhard, T., Perkins, D., Leyendecker, E.V., Dickman, N., Hanson, S., and Hopper, M., 1996, National Seismic-hazard maps: Documentation June 1996, USGS open file report 96-532.
  7. Frankel, A., Petersen, M.D., Mueller, C.S. Haller, K.M., Wheeler, R.L., Leyendecker, E.V., Wesson, R.L., Harmsen, S.C., Cramer, C.H., Perkins, D.M., and Rukstales, K.S., 2002, Documentation for the 2002 update of the national seismic hazard maps, USGS open file 02-420.
  8. Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.F., 1954, The seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.
  9. Harmsen, S., 2008, USGS software for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, USGS, 51 p.
  10. Jo, N.-D., and Baag, C.-E., 2003, Estimation of spectrum decay parameter and stochastic prediction of strong ground motions in southeastern Korea, Journal of The Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea, 7, 59-70.
  11. Junn, J.-G., Jo, N.-D., and Baag, C.-E., 2002, Stochastic prediction of ground motions in southern Korea, Geosciences Jounal, 6, 203-214. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02912691
  12. Kanno, T., Narita, A., Morikawa, N., Fujiwara, H., and Fukushima, Y., 2006, A new attenuation relation for strong ground motion in Japan based on recorded data, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96, 879-897. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050138
  13. Kee, K. and Yang, W., 2006, Historical seismicity of Korea, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96, 879-897. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050138
  14. KHNP (Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power), 2014, A study of maximum earthquake in the nuclear power sites, The Geological Society of Korea.
  15. KIGAM (Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources), 2012, Active fault map and seismic hazard map (the 3rd year report), NEMA-science-2009-24, 900 p (in Korean).
  16. Kijko, A., 2009, Different techniques for estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude Mmax, File: Mmax_Rev 20 May 2009, Aon-Benfield Natural Hazard Centre.
  17. Kim, H.-L., Kim, S.-K., Choi, K.-R., 2010, Application of the JMA instrumental intensity in Korea, Journal of The Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea, 14, 49-56 (in Korean).
  18. Kim, H.-W. and Kyung, J.-B., 2015, Analysis on the relationship between intensity and magnitude for historical earthquakes in the Korean Peninsula, The Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society, 36, 643- 648 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2015.36.7.643
  19. Kim, M.-J. and Kyung, J.-B., 2015, An analysis of the seismicity of input parameters for the seismic hazard analysis in the Korean Peninsula, The Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society, 36, 351-359 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2015.36.4.351
  20. KMA (Korea Meteorological Agency), 2012, Historical earthquake records in Korea (2-1904), Vol. I and II (in Korean).
  21. Kyung, J.-B., Kim, J.-K., Lee, H.-S., 2015, Development of seismic risk evaluation technique accounting for collapse mechanism of facilities, Ministry of Public Safety and Security, MPSS-Science-2013-70 report, 249 p.
  22. Lee, K. and Kim, J.K, 2002, Intensity attenuation in the Sino-Korean Craton, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92, 783-793. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990161
  23. Lee, K., and Yang, W., 2006, Historical seismicity of Korea, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96, 846-855. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050050
  24. McGuire, R.K., 1995, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design earthquakes: closing the loop, Bulletin Seismological Society of America, 85, 1275-1284.
  25. Ministry of Construction and Transportation, 1997, A Study on Seismic Design Code (II), Journal of The Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea (in Korean).
  26. Noh, M.H, 2009, Application of PSHA for domestic nuclear power plant sites. 14th Nuclear Safety Information Conference, Daejeon, 4-6.
  27. Noh, M.H. and Lee, K.H., 1995, Estimation of peak ground motions in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula (II): Development of predictive equations, Journal of Geological Society of Korea, 31, 175-187.
  28. Petersen, M.D., Frankel, A.D., Harmsen, S.C., Mueller, C.S. Haller, K.M., Wheeler, R.L., Wesson, R.L., Zeng Y., Boyd, O.S., Perkins D.M., Luco, N., Field E.H., Wills, C.J., and Rukstales, K.S., 2008, Documentation for the 2008 update of the national seismic hazard maps, USGS open file, 2008-1128.
  29. Petersen, M.D., Moschetti, M.P., Powers, P.M., Mueller, C.S. Haller, K.M., Frankel, A.D., Zeng, Y., Rezaeian, S., Harmsen, S.C., Boyd, O.S., Field, N., Chen, R., Rukstales, K.S., Luco, N., Wheeler, R.L., William, R.A., and Olsen, A.H., 2014, Documentation for the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, USGS open file 2014-1091.
  30. Toro, G. R., Abrahamson, N. A. and Schneider, J. F., 1997, Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in Central and Eastern North America: Best Estimates and uncertainties, Seismological Research Letters, 68, 1, 41-57. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.1.41
  31. Yun, K.-H., Park, D.-H., Chang, C.-J., Sim, T.-M., 2008, Estimation of the uncertainty of the ground-motion attenuation relation based on the observed data, Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea, 116- 123 (in Korean).
  32. Wells, D. and Coppersmith, K., 1994, New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bulletin of the Seismological Sociey of America, 84, 974-1002.

과제정보

연구 과제 주관 기관 : 국민안전처