Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Building Energy Simulation under Future Climate Change and Retrofit

미래 기후변화를 고려한 건물 에너지 시뮬레이션의 불확실성 및 민감도 분석

  • Kim, Young-Jin ;
  • Park, Cheol-Soo
  • 김영진 ;
  • 박철수
  • Received : 2015.08.07
  • Accepted : 2016.02.05
  • Published : 2016.02.29


For reliable building performance assessment, uncertainty caused by future climate change and future energy retrofit should be taken into account. This paper presents a case study of risk-based decision making driven by future uncertainty sources (climate, energy retrofit) in an existing office building. For the study, the EnergyPlus model was chosen and a Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) technique was employed. Then, significant inputs were identified using a global sensitivity analysis. This study compares three alternatives for replacement of a chiller using deterministic and risk-based stochastic approaches. It is shown that the risk-based stochastic approach is more useful than the deterministic approach. In particular, it is highlighted that the uncertainty sources (climate, retrofit, etc.) have an important bearing on the selection of optimal alternatives.


Future Climate Change;Uncertainty;Sensitivity;Monte Carlo Sampling;Building Simulation


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Supported by : 한국연구재단