Uncertainty Analysis of Future Design Floods for the Yongdang Reservoir Watershed using Bootstrap Technique

Bootstrap 기법을 이용한 용당 저수지 유역의 미래 설계홍수량 불확실성 평가

  • Received : 2016.01.25
  • Accepted : 2016.03.29
  • Published : 2016.03.31


To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfall data in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfall arising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was used in this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, was selected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probable rainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, the ranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used as one of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.


Agricultural watershed;RCP;design flood;uncertainty analysis;Bootstrap technique


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Supported by : 한국연구재단