Deterioration Prediction Model of Water Pipes Using Fuzzy Techniques

퍼지기법을 이용한 상수관로의 노후도예측 모델 연구

Choi, Taeho;Choi, Min-ah;Lee, Hyundong;Koo, Jayong

  • Received : 2015.11.24
  • Accepted : 2016.03.11
  • Published : 2016.04.15


Pipe Deterioration Prediction (PDP) and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models were developed in an attempt to predict the deterioration and failure risk in water mains using fuzzy technique and the markov process. These two models were used to determine the priority in repair and replacement, by predicting the deterioration degree, deterioration rate, failure possibility and remaining life in a study sample comprising 32 water mains. From an analysis approach based on conservative risk with a medium policy risk, the remaining life for 30 of the 32 water mains was less than 5 years for 2 mains (7%), 5-10 years for 8 (27%), 10-15 years for 7 (23%), 15-20 years for 5 (17%), 20-25 years for 5 (17%), and 25 years or more for 2 (7%).


Fuzzy;Remaining life;Risk analysis;Water pipe deterioration prediction model


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