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Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation by Combination of PERT and PLET in High-Risk Project

고위험 사업에서 PERT와 PLET기법 결합에 의한 확률적 사업공기 추정

  • Received : 2016.03.04
  • Accepted : 2016.04.06
  • Published : 2016.05.31

Abstract

PERT(Project Evaluation and Review Technique) is typical method in order to probabilistically establish the schedule plan for large scale complex project or mega project. PERT technique is impossible to estimate relationship of each activity probabilistically when there are overlapping relationships because it is limited to Finish-to-Start(FS) relationship. In order to overcome this kind of limitation of PERT technique, PLET(Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique) has been suggested to probabilistically estimate project duration for various overlapping relationships for each activity. However, estimating project duration by PLET technique only considers uncertainty of relationship between activities and not activity time, thus it is not the perfect duration estimating method. The main objective of this research is to propose the integration model of PERT and PLET and verify its probabilistic validity. By verifying application of time calculation method of integration model in practical case, this research will suggest probabilistic project duration estimating method in schedule plan of high-risk construction industry.

Keywords

PDM;BDM;Probabilistic Evaluation;PERT;PLET

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Acknowledgement

Supported by : 강원대학교