Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Distribution Scenarios over the Landslide High Risk Zones in Urban Areas

도심지 토사재해 고위험지역 극치강우 시간분포 시나리오 분석

Yoon, Sunkwon;Jang, Sangmin;Rhee, Jinyoung

  • Received : 2016.05.02
  • Accepted : 2016.05.17
  • Published : 2016.05.31


In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution models over the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) station and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annual maximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during 1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It also showed different results for each area. The $Huff-4^{th}$ Quartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenarios of landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disaster risk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.


Landslide;Frequency Analysis;IDF curve;Huff;Mononobe


  1. Horner, W. M., and S. W. Jens, 1942. Surface runoff determination from rainfall without using coefficients Transaction ASCE, 107: 1039-1075.
  2. Huff, F. A., 1967. Time Distribution of Rainfall in Heavy Storm Water Resources Research, 3(4): 1007-1019.
  3. Hwang, H. G., K. M. Cho, S. W. Lee, K. H. Kim, and C. Y. Yune, 2013. Site Investigation on 2012 Slope Hazard in Korea and its Triggering Factors 2013 KGS Spring National Conference 117-120.
  4. Jang, S. H., J. Y. Yoon, and Y. N. Yoon, 2007. A study on the improvement of Huff's method in Korea: I. Review of applicability of Huff's method in Korea Journal of the Korea Water Resources Association 39(9): 767-777 (in Korean).
  5. Joo, J. G., J. H. Lee, D. J. Jo, H. D. Jun, and J. H. Kim, 2007. Development of a rainfall time distiribution model for urban watersheds Journal of the Korea Water Resources Association 40(8): 655-663 (in Korean).
  6. Kim, J. H., S. S. Jeong, Y. M. Kim, K. W. Lee, 2013. Proposal of Design Method for Landslides Considering Antecedent Rainfall and In-situ Matric Suction Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society 29(12): 11-24.
  7. KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration), 2012. Korea Climate Change Prediction Report Korean Meteorological Administration 1-153.
  8. Moon, Y. H., S. E. Lee, M. S. Kim, and J. R. Baek, 2016. Analyzing type of urban areas at high risk to landslide hazard based on the GIS approach Journal of Korean Society Of Hazard Mitigation, to be published in June. (in Korean).
  9. Oh, J. R., and H. J. Park. (2014). Analysis of Landslide Triggering Rainfall Threshold for Prediction of Landslide Occurrence Journal of Korean Society Of Hazard Mitigation, 14(2): 115-129 (in Korean).
  10. Oh, T. S., and Y. I. Moon, 2008. Conversion Factor Calculation of Annual Maximum Precipitation in Korea Between Fixed and Sliding Durations Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers 34(1): 117-133 (in Korean).
  11. Rahardjo, H., X. E. Li, D. G. Toll, and E. C. Leong, 2001. The effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability Geotechnical and Geological Engineering 19: 371-399.
  12. Tan, S. B., S. L. Tan, T. L. Lim, and K. S. Yang, 1987. Landslide problems and their control in Singapore Proceedings of the 9th Southeast Asian Geotechnical Conference Bangkok, Thailand, 1: 25-36.
  13. Wei, J., Y. S. Heng, W. C. Chow, and M. K. Chong, 1991. Landslide at Bukit Batok sports complex Proceedings of the 9th Asian Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering. Balkema: Rotterdam; Bankok, Thailand 1: 445-448.
  14. Yen, B. C., and V. T. Chow, 1977. Feasibility study on research of local design storms U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., Report No. FHWA-RD-78-65.
  15. Yoon, S. K., and Y. L. Moon, 2014. The recent increasing trends of exceedance rainfall thresholds over the Korean major cities Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers 34(1): 117-133 (in Korean).
  16. Yoon, S. K., J. S., Kim, and Y. I., Moon, 2012. A Study on Optimal Time Distribution of Extreme Rainfall Using Minutely Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Seoul Journal of the Korea Water Resources Association 45(3): 275-290 (in Korean).
  17. Yoon, Y. N., 2007. Hydrology Chungmoongak 1-1152 (in Korean).
  18. Yune, C. Y., K. S. Kim, S. W. Lee, K. J. Jun, and G. H. Kim, 2010. Analysis of Slope Hazard-Triggering Rainfall Characteristics in Gangwon Province by Database Construction Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society 26(10): 27-39 (in Korean).


Supported by : 국토교통과학기술진흥원