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Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Distribution Scenarios over the Landslide High Risk Zones in Urban Areas

도심지 토사재해 고위험지역 극치강우 시간분포 시나리오 분석

Yoon, Sunkwon;Jang, Sangmin;Rhee, Jinyoung
윤선권;장상민;이진영

  • Received : 2016.05.02
  • Accepted : 2016.05.17
  • Published : 2016.05.31

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution models over the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) station and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annual maximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during 1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It also showed different results for each area. The $Huff-4^{th}$ Quartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenarios of landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disaster risk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.

Keywords

Landslide;Frequency Analysis;IDF curve;Huff;Mononobe

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Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국토교통과학기술진흥원