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A Study on Centralized Wind Power Forecasting Based on Time Series Models

시계열 모형을 이용한 단기 풍력 단지 출력 지역 통합 예측에 관한 연구

Wi, Young-Min;Lee, Jaehee
위영민;이재희

  • Received : 2016.01.07
  • Accepted : 2016.05.19
  • Published : 2016.06.01

Abstract

As the number of wind farms operating has increased, the interest of the central unit commitment and dispatch for wind power has increased as well. Wind power forecast is necessary for effective power system management and operation with high wind power penetrations. This paper presents the centralized wind power forecasting method, which is a forecast to combine all wind farms in the area into one, using time series models. Also, this paper proposes a prediction model modified with wind forecast error compensation. To demonstrate the improvement of wind power forecasting accuracy, the proposed method is compared with persistence model and new reference model which are commonly used as reference in wind power forecasting using Jeju Island data. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed wind power forecasting method.

Keywords

Wind power forecasting;Centralized wind power forecasting;Time series

References

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Acknowledgement

Supported by : 한국연구재단