Factors Influencing on Total Fertility Rate using Panel Analysis

패널분석을 이용한 합계출산율에 영향을 미치는 요인분석

  • Received : 2016.04.25
  • Accepted : 2016.05.17
  • Published : 2016.08.28


This study aimed to find effective policies to cope with low birth rate in local authorities. It was analyzed the variables-a number of child-care facilities, paid parental leave, labor force participation, and total working hours-using panel analysis from 2005 to 2014. The results were as follows. First, after testing the whole years, we found that the fittest model was the fixed-effects model of 2 models(fixed-effects model, random effects model). A number of child-care facilities had positive effects, and a number of child-care facilities, and total working hours in women influenced negative effects on total fertility rate. Second, during the former time and the period of plan for low birth rate and aging society, a number of child-care facilities influenced negative effects on total fertility rate. Third, a number of child-care facilities had negative effects on total fertility rate in Busan, Daegu, and Kwangju. Paid parental leave influenced positively on total fertility rate in 5 cities and a province. Women's total working hours were a significant variable of total fertility rate in Jeju. This study found that the variables which influenced on total fertility rate were different by local authorities, and a number of child-care facilities and paid parental leave were very important variables on total fertility rate.


Total Fertility Rate;Child-care Facility;Paid Parental Leave;Labor Force Participation;Total Working Hours


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