A Study on Estimating Tourism Elasticities using Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model

ARDL 모형을 이용한 관광탄력성 추정에 대한 연구

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee (Dept. of Tourism Administration, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Kyung-Soo (Dept. of Accounting, Kangwon National University)
  • 이경희 (강원대학교 관광경영학과) ;
  • 김경수 (강원대학교 회계학과)
  • Received : 2017.04.10
  • Accepted : 2017.05.26
  • Published : 2017.06.30

Abstract

This study was to investigate the elasticity in tourism demand of Chinese tourists visiting Malaysia through ARDL models by using Chinese tourists arrivals, GDP, CPI, transportation costs and others. When China was implementing an open-door policy with foreign countries in the early 15th century, the movement of Chinese was very limited, and then communication between China and other countries was very weak. However, the Chinese government persistently and entirely implemented an open-door policy by participating in the World Trade Organization(WTO) in 2001. The Chinese government has opened the economy through foreign direct investment by providing various incentives for foreign investment. As a result, inbound and outbound Chinese movements increased in the early 21st century. China was one of the top five most visited tourist destinations in the world by 2016, and also Chinese tourists traveling abroad increased, so they made Malaysia a popular tourists destination because of increase sharply to around 1.41 million. This study examined the significance of major economic factors affecting the increase in Chinese tourists arriving in Malaysia. Other factors that induced their arrival included income, tourism prices, transportation costs and promotional activities. Short-run shocks from the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of SARS were included to understand how tourism demand in Malaysia was affected. Finally this study found that the combination of the ARDL and the Error Correction Model were useful to statistically estimate the elasticities of tourism demand.

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