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Cyclical Analysis of Construction Business Using Filtering Model

국내 건설경기의 순환변동 분석

  • 서명교 (상명대학교 부동산학과) ;
  • 김형주 (상명대학교 대학원 부동산학과)
  • Received : 2017.07.17
  • Accepted : 2017.08.24
  • Published : 2017.09.28

Abstract

This paper examines the cyclical fluctuation of 'construction orders' and 'construction investment' using HP filter, Bandpass filter and Beveridge-Nelson decomposition methods. The main results are as follows. As a result of the analysis of the cyclical fluctuation of construction orders, it was analyzed that there were about 7 cyclical fluctuations from 1976 to the first quarter of 2017. Construction orders for cyclical fluctuations peaked in the second quarter of 2015 and turned to a downward trend. On the other hand, construction investment has experienced about 6 cycles of fluctuations during the same period, and it has been rising continuously since the bottom of 3Q12. This is consistent with the general theory that construction orders precede construction investments. In addition, the comparison of the construction orders, construction investment, and GDP amplitude shows that the GDP amplitude is the smallest and stable, and the construction orders have the greatest variation in amplitude. Therefore, construction orders should be adjusted by government policy depending on economic fluctuations.

Keywords

Construction Business Cycle;Construction Orders;Construction Investment;Hodrick-Prescott Filter;Band Pass Filter;Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition

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