Forecasting and Analysis of Air Meteorological Service Charge using ARIMA-Intervention Time Series Model

ARIMA-개입모델을 이용한 항공기상정보 사용료 징수액 추정 및 적정성 연구

  • 김광옥 (한국항공협회 기획정책실) ;
  • 박성식 (한국교통대학교 항공운항학과)
  • Received : 2018.08.04
  • Accepted : 2018.09.15
  • Published : 2018.09.30


Korea meteorological administration(KMA) has started to levy air meteorological service charge on both national and foreign carriers since 2005. The charge has grown on 2010 and 2014 twice. However, KMA has still kept asking airlines to agree with another increase in the charge due to the low cost of goods recovery ratio of 7%. The air meteorological charge has changed from 2,210 KRW at the beginning to 11,400 KRW as of June 2018. According to ARIMA intervention time series analysis, it was proven national carriers would make a payment of 831 million KRW 2018 and 1,024 million KRW 2019, showing 186.2% and 123.2% increase compared to last year respectively. The total amount of charge for both national LCC and foreign airlines was aggregated up to 1,952 million KRW 2019, 227% bigger than the charge paid at 2017. Considering the 50% increase of consumer price index last decade, the increased charge would impair the global competitiveness of national carriers. It could be suggested that current air meteorological charge scheme be improved to apply overseas trend and for national carriers to have a competitive advantage in global aviation market.


  1. Kim, M. S., Kim, K. W., Park, S. S., "A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using Time Series ARIMA- Intervention Model", Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics, Vol. 20, No. 1, 2012, pp.63-74.
  2. Var, Turgut, Lee, C. K., "Tourism Fore- casting: State-of-the Art Techniques". In Mahmmod Khan, Michael Olsen & Turgut Var (Eds.), VNR's Encyclopedia of Hospitality and Tourism, 1993, pp.679-696, New York, NY: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
  3. Crunk, S. M. "On tapering to improve Yule-Walker estimation in autoregressive processes" (1999). Dissertations available from ProQuest. AAI9926113.
  4. Stein, R., Shaman, P. (1989), "A Fixed Point Characterization for Bias of Auto-Regressive Estimators", The Analysis of Statistics, vol. 17, no.3, pp.1275-1284.
  5. Box, G.E.P, Jenkins, G.M., "Time series analysis : Forecasting and control", 2nd ed. San Francisco: Holden-Day, 1976
  6. Glass, G. V., "Estimating the Effects of Intervention into a Non-stationary Time Series", American Educational Research Journal, Vol. 9. 1972, pp.463-477.
  7. Goh, B. H., "The Dynamic Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis on Construction Demand and Tender Price Levels Singapore". Building and Environment, 40(2), 2005, pp.267-276
  8. Nelson, J. P., "Consumer Bankruptcies and Bankruptcy Reform Act: A Time series Intervention Analysis 1960-1997", Journal of Financial Services Research, 17(2), 2002, pp.181-200.
  9. Jung, D. B., Won, T. Y., "The Simplified Analysis of Time Series II", SPSS Academy Series, Data Solution Inc., 2003.
  10. Enders, W. "Applied Econo-metric time series (1st ed)", New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995.
  11. Box, G.E.P, Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., "Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control", 3rd ed. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1994.
  12. Ahn, K. M., Lee, K. W., "Forecasting the Travel Demand of Korean Traveler to Thailand using ARIMA Intervention Model", Korea Journal of Hospitality and Tourism 14(4), 2005, pp.273-288.
  13. Lewis, C. D., "Industrial and Business Forecasting Method", London: Butter worth, 1982.
  14. Kim, S. T., Kim, M. S., Park, S. B., Lee,J. I. "A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using ARIMA-Intervention Model", Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics, Vol. 21 No. 4, 2013, pp.77-89.
  15. ICAO Doc. 9161, "Manual on Air Navigation Services Economics", International Civil Aviation Organization
  16. ICAO Doc. 9965, "Manual on Flight and Flow Information for a Collaborative Environment", International Civil Aviation Organization
  17. ICAO Doc. 9883, "Manual on Global Perfor- mance of the Air Navigation System", International Civil Aviation Organization