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Forecasting and Analysis of Air Meteorological Service Charge using ARIMA-Intervention Time Series Model

ARIMA-개입모델을 이용한 항공기상정보 사용료 징수액 추정 및 적정성 연구

  • 김광옥 (한국항공협회 기획정책실) ;
  • 박성식 (한국교통대학교 항공운항학과)
  • Received : 2018.08.04
  • Accepted : 2018.09.15
  • Published : 2018.09.30

Abstract

Korea meteorological administration(KMA) has started to levy air meteorological service charge on both national and foreign carriers since 2005. The charge has grown on 2010 and 2014 twice. However, KMA has still kept asking airlines to agree with another increase in the charge due to the low cost of goods recovery ratio of 7%. The air meteorological charge has changed from 2,210 KRW at the beginning to 11,400 KRW as of June 2018. According to ARIMA intervention time series analysis, it was proven national carriers would make a payment of 831 million KRW 2018 and 1,024 million KRW 2019, showing 186.2% and 123.2% increase compared to last year respectively. The total amount of charge for both national LCC and foreign airlines was aggregated up to 1,952 million KRW 2019, 227% bigger than the charge paid at 2017. Considering the 50% increase of consumer price index last decade, the increased charge would impair the global competitiveness of national carriers. It could be suggested that current air meteorological charge scheme be improved to apply overseas trend and for national carriers to have a competitive advantage in global aviation market.

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