DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Economic-based approach for predicting optimal water pipe renewal period based on risk and failure rate

Kim, Kibum;Seo, Jeewon;Hyung, Jinseok;Kim, Taehyeon;Kim, Jaehag;Koo, Jayong

  • Received : 2017.11.21
  • Accepted : 2018.05.30
  • Published : 2019.03.31

Abstract

This study suggests a method for calculating the benefits of water pipe renewal based on an estimate of the water supply suspension risk. The proposed method based on five benefit items is more direct and specific than other benefit estimation methods. In addition, a methodology evaluating the economics of pipe renewal based on pipe failure rate is proposed for estimating the optimal renewal point from an economic perspective. By estimating the optimal renewal period based on a yearly benefit cost ratio per pipe in a case study area, it was possible to draft an optimal renewal plan for the subject region from an economic perspective. Compared with other methodologies, a reasonable optimal renewal period was derived from an economic point of view. The result of this study may be used to develop future water pipe renewal plans. Moreover, the proposed methodologies and results derived from this study can be applied to asset management plans.

Keywords

Economic evaluation;Optimal renewal period;Pipeline renewal;Water suspension

References

  1. Kleiner Y, Rajani B. Forecasting variations and trends in water-main breaks. J. Infrastruct. Syst. 2002;8:122-131. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2002)8:4(122)
  2. Rajani B, Makar J. A methodology to estimate remaining service life of grey cast iron water mains. Can. J. Civil Eng. 2000;27:1259-1272. https://doi.org/10.1139/l00-073
  3. Lee SH. Prioritizing water pipe replacement and rehabilitation by evaluating failure risk (thesis). Texas A&M Univ.; 2011.
  4. Deb AK, Grablitz FM, Hasit YJ, Snyder JK. Prioritization water main replacement and rehabilitation. AWWARF; 2002.
  5. Seo J, Koo M, Kim K, Koo J. A study on the probability of failure model based on the safety factor for risk assessment in a water supply network. Procedia Eng. 2015;119:206-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.877
  6. Bae CH, Kim JH, Woo HM, Hong SH. Development of residual tensile strength prediction model for metallic water pipes. J. Korean Geotech. Soc. 2008;9:17-28.
  7. Li CQ, Mahmoodian M. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe. 2013;119:102-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.05.013
  8. Wilson D, Filion Y, Moore I. Mechanistic, probabilistic model to estimate the factor of safety of large-diameter cast iron water mains: Sensitivity analysis. Procedia Eng. 2014;89:1390-1396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2014.11.464
  9. Shamir U, Howard CDD. An analytic approach to scheduling pipe replacement. J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 1979;71:248-258. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1551-8833.1979.tb04345.x
  10. Walski TM. Replacement rules for water mains. J. Am. Water Works Assoc. 1987;79:33-37.
  11. Herz RK. Ageing process and rehabilitation needs of drinking water distribution networks. J. Water Supply Res. Technol. - AQUA 1996;45:221-231.
  12. Bruaset S, Saegrov S, Ugarelli R. Performance-based modelling of long-term deterioration to support rehabilitation and investment decisions in drinking water distribution systems. Urban Water J. 2018;15:46-52. https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2017.1395894
  13. Dandy GC, Engelhardt M. Optimal schedule of water pipe replacement using genetic algorithms. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 2001;127:214-223. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2001)127:4(214)
  14. Dandy GC, Engelhardt MO. Multi-objective trade-offs between cost and reliability in the replacement of water mains. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 2006;132:79-88. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:2(79)
  15. Shin H, Joo C, Koo J. Optimal rehabilitation model for water pipeline systems with genetic algorithm. Procedia Eng. 2016;154:384-390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.07.497
  16. Kleiner Y, Adams BJ, Rogers JS. Water distribution network renewal planning. J. Comput. Civil Eng. 2001;15:15-26. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2001)15:1(15)
  17. Park S, Loganathan GV. Optimal pipe replacement analysis with a new pipe break prediction model. J. Korean Soc. Water Wastewater 2002;16:710-716.
  18. Kleiner Y, Nafi A, Rajani B. Planning renewal of water mains while considering deterioration, economies of scale and adjacent infrastructure. Water Sci. Technol. Water Supply 2010;10:897-906. https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2010.571
  19. Ramos WL. Benefit/cost analysis procedure for determining water main replacement. In: Proceeding of AWWA Conference Symposium; Denver, Colo; 1985. p. 125-133.
  20. Male JW, Walski TM, Slutksy AH. Analyzing water main replacement policies. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 1990;116:362-374. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1990)116:3(362)
  21. Gaewski PE, Blaha FJ. Analysis of total cost of large diameter pipe failures. AWWA Research Symposium Distribution Systems: The Next Frontier, Reno, Nev; 2007.
  22. Liu Z, Kleiner Y, Rajani B. Condition assessment technologies for water transmission and distribution systems. Cincinnati, OH; US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency); 2012. p. 149.
  23. Kim K, Kim M, Choi S, Koo J. A study on economic evaluation for pipeline renewal using contingent valuation method and forecasting pipeline burst. Procedia Eng. 2014;89:870-877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2014.11.519
  24. MOLIT (The Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport). Investment evaluation guideline of stabilization project for multi-regional water supply and industrial water supply. 2014. p. Appendix. 3.
  25. MOE (The Korea Ministry of Environment). 2015 Statistics of waterworks. 2016.
  26. KDI (Korea Development Institute). General guidelines for conducting preliminary feasibility research. 4th ed. 2008. p. 107.
  27. KOTI (Korea Transport Institute). Research of national transport demand. 2012. p. 359.
  28. K-water. Validation review of optimal renewal period for multi-regional water supply pipelines. Daejeon; K-water; 2015. p. 360.
  29. Mays LW. Water supply systems security. McGRAW-HILL;2003. p. 382.
  30. Wagner JM, Shamir U, Marks DH. Water distribution reliability: Analytic methods. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 1988;114:253-275. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1988)114:3(253)
  31. Kim K. The optimal renewal planning using dynamic programming in water pipelines (thesis). Seoul: Univ. of Seoul; 2015. p. 193.
  32. Balogun II, Sojobi AO, Galkaye E. Public water supply in Logos State, Nigeria: Review of importance and challenges, status and concerns and pragmatic solutions. Cogent Eng. 2017;4:1329776.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : University of Seoul