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Development of Demand Forecasting Model for Seoul Shared Bicycle

서울시 공유자전거의 수요 예측 모델 개발

Lim, Heejong;Chung, Kwanghun
임희종;정광헌

  • Received : 2018.12.07
  • Accepted : 2019.01.08
  • Published : 2019.01.28

Abstract

Recently, many cities around the world introduced and operated shared bicycle system to reduce the traffic and air pollution. Seoul also provides shared bicycle service called as "Ddareungi" since 2015. As the use of shared bicycle increases, the demand for bicycle in each station is also increasing. In addition to the restriction on budget, however, there are managerial issues due to the different demands of each station. Currently, while bicycle rebalancing is used to resolve the huge imbalance of demands among many stations, forecasting uncertain demand at the future is more important problem in practice. In this paper, we develop forecasting model for demand for Seoul shared bicycle using statistical time series analysis and apply our model to the real data. In particular, we apply Holt-Winters method which was used to forecast electricity demand, and perform sensitivity analysis on the parameters that affect on real demand forecasting.

Keywords

Shared Bicycle;Demand Forecasting;Exponential Smoothing;Holt-Winters Method;Time-Series Analysis

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