Domestic air demand forecast using cross-validation

교차검증을 이용한 국내선 항공수요예측

Lim, Jae-Hwan;Kim, Young-Rok;Choi, Yun-Chul;Kim, Kwang-Il

  • Received : 2019.02.07
  • Accepted : 2019.03.25
  • Published : 2019.03.31


The aviation demand forecast field has been actively studied along with the recent growth of the aviation market. In this study, the demand for domestic passenger demand and freight demand was estimated through cross-validation method. As a result, passenger demand is influenced by private consumption growth rate, oil price, and exchange rate. Freight demand is affected by GDP per capita, private consumption growth rate, and oil price. In particular, passenger demand is characterized by temporary external shocks, and freight demand is more affected by economic variables than temporary shocks.


aviation demand forecast;cross-validation;passenger demand;freight demand;temporary external shocks;economic variables


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