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Analysis of Decoupling Phenomenon Between Economic Growth and GHG Emissions: Dynamic Panel Analysis of 63 Countries (1980~2014)

경제성장과 탄소배출량의 탈동조화 현상 분석: 63개국 동태패널분석(1980~2014년)

  • Received : 2019.08.13
  • Accepted : 2019.10.29
  • Published : 2019.12.31

Abstract

The importance of "decoupling" to maintain economic growth and reduce greenhouse gases is emerging as the world has been mandated to reduce greenhouse gases since the 2015 Paris Agreement. This study covered 63 countries from 1980 to 2014 and analyzed the main characteristics and causes of decoupling phenomenon between economic growth and carbon emissions. In this study, the degree of decoupling was measured every five years. The analysis found that the decoupling rate of OECD countries and countries with large incomes was high, and that the decoupling phenomenon has accelerated worldwide since the 2000s. However, the degree of decoupling was different depending on the national characteristics. According to the results of dynamic panel model, the growth rate of manufacturing and the proportion of exports hampered decoupling, while the proportion of human capital and renewable energy had a positive effect on decoupling. Also income had a inverse U-shape non-linear effect on decoupling.

2015년 파리협정 이후 전세계가 온실가스 감축 의무를 부여받음에 따라 경제성장을 유지하며, 온실가스를 감축하는 '탈동조화(decoupling)'의 중요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 연구는 전 세계 63개 국가를 대상으로 1980년부터 2014년까지의 각 국가별 경제성장과 탄소배출량 사이의 탈동조화 현상의 주요 특징 및 이를 야기하는 원인을 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 매 5년마다의 탈동조화 정도를 국가별로 측정하였다. 분석 결과, OECD국가 및 소득이 많은 국가들의 탈동조화지수가 높았으며, 2000년대 이후 전세계적으로 탈동조화 현상이 가속화되었음을 확인했다. 다만, 국가 특성에 따라 탈동조화 정도가 상이했다. 동태패널모형을 통해 탈동조화의 원인을 살펴본 결과, 제조업 성장률 및 수출비중은 탈동조화를 저해한 반면, 인적자본 및 신재생에너지 비율은 탈동조화에 긍정적인 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 또한 소득은 탈동조화에 역U자형태의 영향을 미쳤다.

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