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Changes in Factors Affecting International Grain Prices

국제곡물가격에 영향을 미치는 요인의 변화

  • 최선규 (남서울대학교 대학원 경영학과) ;
  • 정헌용 (남서울대학교 경영학과)
  • Received : 2019.02.04
  • Accepted : 2019.04.08
  • Published : 2019.05.31

Abstract

This study analyzed the effects of short-term interest rates, exchange rates and international oil prices on international grain prices using the EGARCH-GED model. The yield before one month of the international grain prices itself was found to have a significant effect on international grain prices for most periods. During the entire analysis period, none of the economic variables appeared to have a significant effect on international grain prices, whereas during the exchange fall period, only oil prices were shown to have a significant effect on international grain prices. In addition, during the pre-crisis period, interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices did not all have a significant effect, but during the post-crisis period only oil prices had a significant effect on international grain prices. It turns out that the factors affecting international grain prices are changing with the passage of time.

표 1. 기술통계량 Table 1. Descriptive Statistics

GJMGCK_2019_v5n2_183_t0001.png 이미지

표 2. 전체분석기간에서의 분석결과 Table 2. Results of analysis in the entire analysis period

GJMGCK_2019_v5n2_183_t0002.png 이미지

표 3. 환율상승기간에서의 분석결과 Table 3. Results of analysis in exchange rate rise period

GJMGCK_2019_v5n2_183_t0003.png 이미지

표 4. 환율하락기간에서의 분석결과 Table 4. Results of analysis in exchange rate fall period

GJMGCK_2019_v5n2_183_t0004.png 이미지

표 5. 금융위기이전 기간에서의 분석결과 Table 5. Results of analysis before the financial crisis

GJMGCK_2019_v5n2_183_t0005.png 이미지

표 6. 금융위기이후 기간에서의 분석결과 Table 6. Results of analysis after the financial crisis

GJMGCK_2019_v5n2_183_t0006.png 이미지

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