Sampling-based Approach for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

지진 확률론적 리스크 평가를 위한 샘플링기반 접근법

  • Kwag, Shinyoung (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hanbat National University) ;
  • Eem, Seunghyun (School of Convergence and Fusion System Engineering, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Park, Junhee (Mechanical and Structural Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) ;
  • Choi, In-Kil (Mechanical and Structural Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute)
  • 곽신영 (한밭대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 임승현 (경북대학교 융복합시스템공학부 플랜트시스템전공) ;
  • 박준희 (한국원자력연구원 기계.구조안전연구부) ;
  • 최인길 (한국원자력연구원 기계.구조안전연구부)
  • Received : 2020.01.15
  • Accepted : 2020.01.28
  • Published : 2020.04.30


In this study, we develop a sampling-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) quantification technique that can accurately consider a partially dependent condition of component seismic fragility information. Specifically, the SPRA quantification method is proposed by combining the advantages of two representative methodologies: EPRI seismic fragility and JAERI seismic fragility input-based quantification. The most important feature of the proposed method is that it performs a SPRA using a sampling technique by transforming the EPRI seismic fragility input into JAERI seismic fragility input. When the proposed sampling-based approach was applied to an example of simple system and to a SPRA problem of a nuclear power plant, it was observed that the proposed method yields approximately similar system seismic fragility and seismic risk results as those of the exact solution. Therefore, it is believed that the approach proposed in this study can be used as a useful tool for accurately assessing seismic risks, considering the partial seismic dependence among the components; the existing SPRA method cannot handle such partial dependencies.


Supported by : 한밭대학교


  1. Kwag, S., Gupta, A. (2017) Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Structural Systems under Multiple Hazards using Bayesian Statistics, Nuclear Eng. & Des., 315(4), pp.20-34.
  2. Kwag, S., Oh, J., Lee, J.M. (2018) Application of Bayesian Statistics to Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Research Reactor, Nuclear Eng. & Des., 328, pp.166-181.
  3. Kwag, S., Oh, J., Lee, J.M., Ryu, J.S. (2017) Bayesian based Seismic Margin Assessment Approach: Application to Research Reactor System, Earthq. & Struct., 12(6), pp.653-663.
  4. EPRI (2002) Seismic Fragility Application Guide, TR-1002988, Electric Power Research Institute.
  5. Kim, J.H., Choi, I-.K., Park, J-.H. (2011) Uncertainty Analysis of System Fragility for Seismic Safety Evaluation of NPP, Nuclear Eng. & Des., 241, pp.2570-2579.
  6. USNRC (2017) Correlation of Seismic Performance in Similar SSCs (structures, Systems, and Components), NUREG/CR-7237, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research.
  7. Wells, J.W., George, L.L., Cummings, G.E. (1984) Dseismic Safety Margins Research Program, Phase 1 Final Report: Systems nalysis (Project VII), Vol. A8, NUREG/CR-2015, United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
  8. Ellingwood, B. (1990) Validation studies of seismic PRAs, Nuclear Eng. & Des., 123, pp.189-196.
  9. EPRI (1994) Methodology for Developing Seismic Fragilities, TR-103959, Electric Power Research Institute.
  10. Ebisawa, K., Abe, K., Muramatsu, K., Itoh, M., Kohno, K., Tanaka, T. (1994) Evaluation of Response Factors for Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants, Nuclear Eng. & Des., 147(2), pp.197-210.