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REFERENCE LINKING PLATFORM OF KOREA S&T JOURNALS
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Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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Journal DOI :
Korean Society of Transportation
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Volume & Issues
Volume 31, Issue 6 - Dec 2013
Volume 31, Issue 5 - Oct 2013
Volume 31, Issue 4 - Aug 2013
Volume 31, Issue 3 - Jun 2013
Volume 31, Issue 2 - Apr 2013
Volume 31, Issue 1 - Feb 2013
Selecting the target year
Forecasting the Air Cargo Demand With Seasonal ARIMA Model: Focusing on ICN to EU Route
Min, Kyung-Chang ; Jun, Young-In ; Ha, Hun-Koo ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 3~18
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.003
This study develops a forecasting method to estimate air cargo demand from ICN(Incheon International Airport) to all airports in EU with Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model using volumes from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2009. This paper shows the superiority of SARIMA Model by comparing the forecasting accuracy of SARIMA with that of other ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. Given that very few papers and researches focuses on air route, this paper will be helpful to researchers concerned with air cargo.
A Study on Analyzing Children's Crossing Behaviors on Non-signalized Crosswalk
Lee, Deok Whan ; Lee, Yun Suk ; Kim, Won Ho ; Lee, Back Jin ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 19~32
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.019
The study aims to find the characteristics of children's crossing behavior on crosswalk in school zones. It considers accident occurrence and physical form of school zones. Seven elementary school zones were investigated. Using data collected by field observation and video recording, statistical analysis, CHAID algorithm analysis, and pattern analysis were performed. As a result, it was found that children's waiting, attention and distraction were related to the accident occurrence. While 69.1% children showed waiting-before-crossing behavior in low-accident occurrence crosswalk, 83.6% children showed non waiting-before-crossing behavior in high-accident occurrence crosswalk. Moreover, the ratio of waiting, attention behavior was found to be higher when the width of the crosswalk was wide and the distance from the school's entrance to the crosswalk was long. These research findings showed that children's behavior-oriented approach was required to improve safety in school zone.
Diversion Rate Estimation Model for Unexperienced Transportation Mode by Considering Maximum Willingness-to-pay: A Case Study of Personal Rapid Transit
Yu, Jeong Whon ; Choi, Jung Yoon ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 33~44
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.033
Personal Rapid Transit(PRT) has emerged as a promising transportation mode for transit-oriented sustainable communities. In this study, an alternative design of questionnaire survey is proposed in order to capture traveler's perception of an unexperienced transportation mode. This study aims at predicting the mode choice diversion behavior of potential PRT users who do not have experience of using it previously, considering their willingness-to-pay. The proposed model was applied to predict an aggregate forecast of PRT patronage for the city of Songdo where PRT is considered to be constructed. For validation of the proposed model, the price elasticity of PRT demand was analyzed, compared with existing models. The analysis results suggest that the proposed design of questionnaire survey is able to capture respondents' attitude and perception to unexperienced transportation mode in an effective manner. Also, they show that the proposed diversion rate model is more realistic than existing models in explaining the effects of users' willingness-to-pay for predicting PRT patronage.
An Expressway Path Travel Time Estimation Using Hi-pass DSRC Off-Line Travel Data
Shim, Sangwoo ; Choi, Keechoo ; Lee, Sangsoo ; NamKoong, Seong J. ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 45~54
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.045
Korea Expressway Corporation has been utilizing vehicles equipped with dedicated short range communication (DSRC) based on-board equipment (OBE) for collecting path travel times. A path based method (PBM) estimates the path travel time using probe vehicles traveling whole links on the path, so it is not always possible to obtain sufficient samples for calculating path travel time in the DSRC system. Having this problem in utilizing DSRC for travel time information, this study attempted to estimate path travel time with the help of a link based method (LBM) and examined whether the LBM can be used for obtaining reliable path travel times. Some comparisons were made and identified that the MAPE difference between the LBM and the PBM estimates are less than 3%, signaling that LBM can be used as a proxy for PBM in case of sparse sample conditions. Some limitations and a future research agenda have also been proposed.
Calculation of Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emission on Inter-regional Road Network Using ITS Information
Wu, Seung Kook ; Kim, Youngkook ; Park, Sangjo ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 55~64
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.055
Conventionally, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector have been estimated using the fuel consumption (i.e. Tier 1 method). However, the GHG emissions on road networks may not be practically estimated using the Tier 1 method because it is not practical to monitor fuel consumption on a road segment. Further, air pollutant emissions on a road may not be estimated efficiently by the Tier 1 method either due to the diverse characteristics of vehicles, such as travel speed, vehicle type, model year, fuel type, etc. Given these conditions, the goal of this study is to propose a Tier 3 level methodology to calculate
emissions on inter-regional roads using the information from ITS infrastructure. The methodology may avoid the under-estimation issue caused by the concavity of emission factor curves because the ITS speed or volume information is aggregated by a short time interval. The proposed methodology was applied to 4 road segments as a case study. The results show that the management of heavy vehicles' speed is important to control the
emissions on road networks.
Estimation of Bus Saturation Flow Rates at Signalized Intersections Including Exclusive Median Bus Lanes
Cho, Hanseon ; Lee, Jae-Joon ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 65~73
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.065
Exclusive median bus lanes were installed to mitigate congestions on urban traffic networks. However, capacity analysis of signalized intersections having exclusive median bus lanes have not been provided in current capacity analysis process(analyses). This study aims to develop a method of capacity analysis for lane groups consisting of only buses at the signalized intersections having exclusive median bus lanes. Finding basic saturation flow rates for buses is critical since the operational characteristics between automobiles and buses are fairly different. A total of 8 intersections in Seoul were chosen as study sites. Saturation headways, distances between bus-stop and stopline, and grades of each approach were measured at the sites. It was found that the basic saturation headway and the basic saturation flow rate of buses were 3.27 s/veh and 1,100pc/h/ln, respectively. Adjustment factor for upstream bus-stop locations was estimated with 0.50 and 0.75 when the distances between bus-stop and stopline are 20m and 70m, respectively. This study explains that bus saturation flow rates are decreased in half if the bus stop locates within 20 meters from stop lines.
An Analysis of the Causes of the Welfare Gain Achieved by Congestion Pricing and Transit Subsidies
Rhee, Hyok-Joo ; Yu, Sang-Gyun ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 74~85
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.074
We analyze the efficiency of congestion pricings and transit subsidies in the spatial micro-economic model based on a general equilibrium environment. In this setting, we decompose the total welfare change into component factors and identify the reason of the change in the efficiency caused by policy instruments; these component factors are divided into indirect factors and direct factors including of origin-destination and mode choices. We set up the model as adding mode choice to the standard format in the fashion of Anas and Kim (1996) and extend the methodology proposed by Yu and Rhee (2011) and Rhee (2012) for deriving theoretical and analytical solution. Most of welfare gain comes from the modal shift from car to bus. The relative efficiency of subsidies in relation to the first-best pricing is lower than it of congestion pricings although the change in bus share by subsidies is similar to it by congestion pricing. Subsidies give rise to more modal shift from a car to a bus for long-distance commuting than it caused by congestion pricings. As the increase of bus share for long-distance commuting leads to the increase of cross-commuters passing through CBD, the welfare gain by subsidies is lower than it by congestion pricings.
Compensation and Amendment of Highway Travel Demand Forecasting
Lee, Eui-Jun ; Kim, Young-Sun ; Yi, Yong-Ju ; OH, Young-Tae ; Choi, Keechoo ; Yu, Jeong Whon ;
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, volume 31, issue 3, 2013, Pages 86~95
DOI : 10.7470/jkst.2013.31.3.086
In this study, a model of compensation and amendment of forecasted travel demand was developed to calculate the range of values depends on the changes in the risk factors, selecting factors that might affect traffic demand changes among risk factors. Selected factors are as follows: influenced area population, the number of registrated vehicle per person, ratio of service industry workers, and city intervals. Then this model is applied to six routes of expressway and the calculated value were compensated with error rate being reflected on each quartile value with respect to influenced area population (200,000 people standards). Result from appling developed model to Cheongwon-Sangju expressway suggests that the model could compensate the error rate by more than 50%, which in turn validate the effectiveness of the model developed. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been identified.