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REFERENCE LINKING PLATFORM OF KOREA S&T JOURNALS
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Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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The Korean Operations and Management Science Society
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Volume & Issues
Volume 8, Issue 2 - Oct 1983
Volume 8, Issue 1 - Apr 1983
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The Development and Application of Policy Formulation Methodology Using Probabilistic System Dynamics
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, volume 8, issue 2, 1983, Pages 9~25
A new approach to cross impact analysis using probabilistic system dynamics(PSD) is presented in this article. The previous models using PSD consist of system dynamics models as a basis which are interacting with cross impact analysis (CIA) sectors. In this model, the policy impact analysis part is separated from the CIA sectors and is constituted an independent subsectors of the model. The policy subsector is designed to separate the policy impact and provide feedback both to the system dynamics base model and cross impact analysis sectors. The new technique is applied to the forecasting, assessment and policy formulation of air pollution in Seoul metropolitan area in 2,000. The results show that the new tool consider policy effects more effectively than the previous PSD models.
A Quantitative Approach for analysis on the Patterns of Socio-Economic Development Structure
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, volume 8, issue 2, 1983, Pages 27~43
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the structure and properties of the patterns by extracting the general patterns on socio-economic development from huge data by statistical analysis. We collected data concerning socio-logical, economical and technological aspects. Indicators used for this study amounted to a total of 136, and among them 39 were on science & technology. What is more, these indicators were set up with the resent data for the first half of the 1970's mainly, and 141 nations were selected as the sample. Some rinkage patterns to the total indicators were abstracted by cluster analysis based on the correlation matrix. And some rinkage patterns to the total countries were educed by applying cluster analysis of centroid method to the respective indicators.
An Energy Demand Forecasting Model for the Residential and Commercial Sector
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, volume 8, issue 2, 1983, Pages 45~56
This paper presents a generalized fuel choice model in which restrictive constraints on cross-price coefficients as Baughman-Joskow-FEA Logit Model need not be imposed, but all demand elasticities are uniquely determined. The model is applied to estimating aggregate energy demand and fuel choices for the residential and commercial sector. The structural equations are estimated by a generalized least squares procedure using national-level EPB, KDI, BK, KRIS, MOER data for 1965 and 1980, and other related reports. The econometric results support the argument that “third-price” and “fourth-price” coefficients should not be constrained in estimating relative market share models. Furthermore, by using this fuel choice model, it has forecasted energy demands by fuel sources in, the residential and commercial sector until 1991. The results are turned out good estimates to compare with existing demands forecasted from other institutes.
A Study on the Strategies of MIS Development in Korea: MIS Survey
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, volume 8, issue 2, 1983, Pages 57~65
Despite the recent phenomenal growth in computer installations in business and increasing interests in Management Information Systems in Korea, there are basic questions remained: how are the computers utilized, what is the current state of MIS, and what are the strategies which will enhance the current state of MIS in Korea？ The purpose of this paper is to answer these questions. To begin, the current state of MIS is investigated from the aspects of MIS budget, manpower, hardware, and various softwares based on the survey of 30 major industries. The results show that the overall MIS in Korea is still remained in the primitive stage despite its ultra modern computer hardwares. The obstacles that hinders the MIS evolution in Korea seems intractable for quite a long period of time. Some strategies are suggested which can partially remove two big obstacles-shortage in qualified manpower and lack of softwares that fit Korean industries.
A Study on School Timetabling
Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society, volume 8, issue 2, 1983, Pages 67~71
The purpose of this paper is to propose a method of constructing a school timetable under consideration of subjects, teachers, classes, rooms, activity types and so on. The method gives an acceptable timetable which satisfies all dispensable requirements and different timetables also are obtained by changing the order of assignments. The resulting timetables are evaluated and compared by scoring scheme which can be modified by users. The results achieved using real data have been encouraging.