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REFERENCE LINKING PLATFORM OF KOREA S&T JOURNALS
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Korean Meteorological Society
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Volume & Issues
Volume 17, Issue 4 - Dec 2007
Volume 17, Issue 3 - Sep 2007
Volume 17, Issue 2 - Jun 2007
Volume 17, Issue 1 - Mar 2007
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Comparison of Ensemble Perturbations using Lorenz-95 Model: Bred vectors, Orthogonal Bred vectors and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter(ETKF)
Chung, Kwan-Young ; Barker, Dale ; Moon, Sun-Ok ; Jeon, Eun-Hee ; Lee, Hee-Sang ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 217~230
Using the Lorenz-95 simple model, which can simulate many atmospheric characteristics, we compare the performance of ensemble strategies such as bred vectors, the bred vectors rotated (to be orthogonal to each bred member), and the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). The performance metrics used are the RMSE of ensemble means, the ratio of RMS error of ensemble mean to the spread of ensemble, rank histograms to see if the ensemble member can well represent the true probability density function (pdf), and the distribution of eigen-values of the forecast ensemble, which can provide useful information on the independence of each member. In the meantime, the orthogonal bred vectors can achieve the considerable progress comparing the bred vectors in all aspects of RMSE, spread, and independence of members. When we rotate the bred vectors for orthogonalization, the improvement rate for the spread of ensemble is almost as double as that for RMS error of ensemble mean compared to the non-rotated bred vectors on a simple model. It appears that the result is consistent with the tentative test on the operational model in KMA. In conclusion, ETKF is superior to the other two methods in all terms of the assesment ways we used when it comes to ensemble prediction. But we cannot decide which perturbation strategy is better in aspect of the structure of the background error covariance. It appears that further studies on the best perturbation way for hybrid variational data assimilation to consider an error-of-the-day(EOTD) should be needed.
Flow Regimes of Continuously Stratified Flow over a Double Mountain
Han, Ji-Young ; Kim, Jae-Jin ; Baik, Jong-Jin ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 231~240
The flow regimes of continuously stratified flow over a double mountain and the effects of a double mountain on wave breaking, upstream blocking, and severe downslope windstorms are investigated using a mesoscale numerical model (ARPS). According to the occurrence or non-occurrence of wave breaking and upstream blocking, three different flow regimes are identified over a double mountain. Higher critical Froude numbers are required for wave breaking and upstream blocking initiation for a double mountain than for an isolated mountain. This means that the nonlinearity and blocking effect for a double mountain is larger than that for an isolated mountain. As the separation distance between two mountains decreases, the degree of flow nonlinearity increases, while the blocking effect decreases. A rapid increase of the surface horizontal velocity downwind of each mountain near the critical mountain height for wave breaking initiation indicates that severe downslope windstorms are enhanced by wave breaking. For the flow with wave breaking, the numerically calculated surface drag is much larger than theoretically calculated one because the region with the maximum negative perturbation pressure moves from the top to the downwind slope of each mountain as the internal jump propagating downwind occurs.
Impacts of the Land-sea Distribution around Korean Peninsula on the simulation of East Asia Summer Precipitation
Cha, Yu-Mi ; Lee, Hyo-Shin ; Kwon, Won-Tae ; Boo, Kyung-On ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 241~253
This paper investigates summer precipitation change in East Asia according to switching surface boundary condition over South Korea and Shantung. Simulations are carried out by ECHO-G/S for 20 years (1980-1999). Surface condition over both areas in ECHO-G/S is represented by ocean (OCN experiment). In OCN experiment, the summer precipitation is considerably underestimated around the Korean peninsula (the dry region) and overestimated over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (the wet region). It may be related that the lack of the heat sources from the unrealistically prescribed land-sea mask weakens northward expansion of rainband and the development of convective precipitation. Moreover the simulated rainband retreats before June in connection with the early genesis of summer monsoon circulation. The systematic bias of the summer precipitation over the dry and wet regions are reduced comparing with the OCN experiment when the land-sea masks over South Korea and Shantung are realistically considered as land (LND experiment). These improvements can be explained by the thermodynamical dissimilarity between land and ocean. Enhanced warming by switching the areas from sea to land has led to develop the thermal low over Yellow Sea with the cyclonic circulation. Thus, this cyclonic circulation supports moistures from the south to the dry region and blocks to the wet region. The heat transport from the land surface to atmosphere plays a key role in the developing convective precipitation in local scale and maintaining the precipitation and the rainband. Therefore, this results indicate that the design of the realistic land-sea distribution is required for the accurate simulation of the regional precipitation.
Estimation of High Resolution Gridded Temperature Using GIS and PRISM
Hong, Ki-Ok ; Suh, Myoung-Seok ; Rha, Deuk-Kyun ; Chang, Dong-Ho ; Kim, Chansoo ; Kim, Maeng-Ki ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 255~268
This study generated and evaluated the high resolution (5 km) gridded data of monthly mean, maximum and minimum temperature from 2002 to 2005 over South Korea using a modified PRISM(Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model: K-PRISM) developed by Daly et al. (2003). The performance of K-PRISM was evaluated by qualitative and quantitative ways using the observations and gridded data derived by inverse distance weighting (IDW) and hypsometric methods (HYPS). For the generation of high resolution gridded data, geographic informations over South Korea, such as the digital elevation, topographic facet and coastal proximity, are derived from the 1 km digital elevation data. The spatial patterns of temperature derived by K-PRISM were more closely linked to topography and coastal proximity than those by IDW. The K-PRISM performed much better than IDW for all months and temperatures, but it was equal to or slightly better than the HYPS. And the performances of K-PRISM were better in the minimum and mean temperature (winter) than the in maximum temperature (summer).
Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the Western North Pacific using GDAPS Ensemble Prediction System
Kim, Ji-Sun ; Kwon, H. Joe ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 269~279
This study investigates the possibility of seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by using a dynamical modeling approach. We use data from the SMIP/HFP (Seasonal Prediction Model Inter-comparison Project/Historical Forecast Project) experiment with the Korea Meteorological Administration's GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) T106 model, focusing our analysis on model-generated tropical cyclones. It is found that the prediction depends primarily on the tropical cyclone (TC) detecting criteria. Additionally, a scaling factor and a different weighting to each ensemble member are found to be essential for the best predictions of summertime TC activity. This approach indeed shows a certain skill not only in the category forecast but in the standard verifications such as Brier score and relative operating characteristics (ROC).
Vertical Structure of the Coastal Atmospheric Boundary Layer Based on Terra/MODIS Data
Kim, Dong Su ; Kwon, Byung Hyuk ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 281~289
Micrometeorlogical and upper air observation have been conducted in order to determine the atmospheric boundary layer depth based on data from satellite and automatic weather systems. Terra/MODIS temperature profiles and sensible heat fluxes from the gradient method were used to estimate the mixed layer height over a coastal region. Results of the integral model were in good agreement with the mixed layer height observed using GPS radiosonde at Wolsung (
). Since the variation of the mixed layer height depends on the surface sensible heat flux, the integral model estimated properly the mixed layer height in the daytime. The buoyant heat flux, which is more important than the sensible heat flux in the coastal region, must be taken into consideration to improve the integral model. The vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer can be analyzed only with the routine data and the satellite data.
Precision Validation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor via Comparison with MWR Measurements
Ha, Jihyun ; Park, Kwan-Dong ; Chang, Ki-Ho ; Yang, Ha-Young ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 291~298
The precipitable water vapors (PWVs) obtained from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Microwave Radiometer (MWR) measurements have been compared for validation of precision of the GPS PWV at Daegwallyoung station for 21 days from Sep. 30 to Oct. 20, 2006. The GPS PWV is estimated using the delay of GPS signals due to the water vapor in the atmosphere with a local mean temperature equation, called HP model, and the MWR PWV by the combinational radiance observation of two channels (23.8 and 31.4 GHz). During the co-observation period, the MWR and GPS PWV show a similar trend, and the bias between the PWVs is 1.7 mm on average. When the bias is removed, the PWV of GPS gives good agreement with that of MWR, having about 1 mm for both the standard deviation and RMS error between the GPS and MWR PWV.
Characteristics of Typhoon in 2006 and Improvement of Typhoon Forecast
Cha, Eun-Jeong ; Lee, Kyung-Hi ; Park, Yun-Ho ; Park, Jong-Sook ; Shim, Jae-Kwan ; In, Hee-Jin ; Yoo, Hee-Dong ; Kwon, Heok-Joe ; Shin, Do-Shick ;
Atmosphere, volume 17, issue 3, 2007, Pages 299~314
The purpose of this study is to summarize tropical cyclone activity in 2006. Twenty three tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2006. The total number is less than the thirty-year (1971~2000) average frequency of 26.7. Out of twenty three tropical cyclones, fifteen cyclones reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest eight cyclones only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and five TS storms. The tropical cyclone season in 2006 began in May with the formation of CHANCHU (0601). The convective activity was slightly inactive around the Philippines from late June to early August. In addition, subtropical high was more enhanced than normal over the south of Japan from May to early August. Consequently, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines after late June, and many of them moved westwards to China. CHANCHU (0601), BILIS (0604), KAEMI (0605), PRAPIROON (0606) and SAOMI (0608) brought damage to China, the Philippines, and Vietnam. On the other hand, EWINIAR (0603) moved northwards and hit the Republic of Korea, causing damage to the country. From late August to early September, convective activity was temporarily inactive over the sea east of the Philippines. However, it turned active again after late September. Subtropical high was weak over the south of Japan after late August. Therefore, most tropical cyclones formed over the sea east of the Philippines and moved northwards. WUKONG (0610) and SHANSHAN (0613) hit Japan to bring damage to the country. On the other hand, XANGSANE (0615) and CIMARON (0619) moved westwards in the South China Sea, causing damage to the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Another special feature in 2006 tropical cyclone activity is that IOKE (0612) formed in the central North Pacific crossed 180 degree longitude and moved into the western North Pacific. It has been four years since HUKO (0224) in 2002.