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REFERENCE LINKING PLATFORM OF KOREA S&T JOURNALS
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Journal DOI :
Korean Meteorological Society
Editor in Chief :
Volume & Issues
Volume 24, Issue 4 - Dec 2014
Volume 24, Issue 3 - Sep 2014
Volume 24, Issue 2 - Jun 2014
Volume 24, Issue 1 - Mar 2014
Selecting the target year
Thermodynamic Characteristics Associated with Localized Torrential Rainfall Events in the Middle West Region of Korean Peninsula
Jung, Sueng-Pil ; Kwon, Tae-Yong ; Han, Sang-Ok ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 457~470
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.457
Thermodynamic conditions related with localized torrential rainfall in the middle west region of Korean peninsula are examined using radar rain rate and radiosonde observational data. Localized torrential rainfall events in this study are defined by three criteria base on 1) any one of Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) hourly rainfall exceeds
around Osan, 2) the rain (>
) area estimated from radar reflectivity is less than
, and 3) the rain (>
) cell is detected clearly and duration is short than 24 hr. As a result, 13 cases were selected during the summer season of 10 years (2004-13). It was found that the duration, the maximum rain area, and the maximum volumetric rain rate of convective cells (>
) are less than 9hr, smaller than
in these cases. And a majority of cases shows the following thermodynamic characteristics: 1) Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) >
, 2) Convective Inhibition (CIN) <
, 3) Total Precipitable Water (TPW)
55 mm, and 4) Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) <
. These cases mostly occurred in the afternoon. These thermodynamic conditions indicated that these cases were caused by strong atmospheric instability, lifting to overcome CIN, and sufficient moisture. The localized torrential rainfall occurred with deep moisture convection result from the instability caused by convective heating.
Development of Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model using the Unified Model output (UM-Road)
Park, Moon-Soo ; Joo, Seung Jin ; Son, Young Tae ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 471~479
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.471
A road surface temperature prediction model (UM-Road) using input data of the Unified Model (UM) output and road physical properties is developed and verified with the use of the observed data at road weather information system. The UM outputs of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, downward shortwave radiation, net longwave radiation, precipitation and the road properties such as slope angles, albedo, thermal conductivity, heat capacity at maximum 7 depth are used. The net radiation is computed by a surface radiation energy balance, the ground heat flux at surface is estimated by a surface energy balance based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity, the ground heat transfer process is applied to predict the road surface temperature. If the observed road surface temperature exists, the simulated road surface temperature is corrected by mean bias during the last 24 hours. The developed UM-Road is verified using the observed data at road side for the period from 21 to 31 March 2013. It is found that the UM-Road simulates the diurnal trend and peak values of road surface temperature very well and the 50% (90%) of temperature difference lies within
) except for precipitation case.
Restoration and Analysis of Chugugi Rainfall Data in 『Gaksadeungnok』 for the Gyeongsang-do during the Joseon Dynasty
Cho, Ha-Man ; Kim, Sang-Won ; Park, Jin ; Chun, Young-Sin ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 481~489
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.481
The Chugugi and Wootaek data of Gyeongsang-do (Dagu, Jinju, Goseong) were restored from "Gaksadeungnok", the governmental documents reported by the local government to the central during the Joseon Dynasty, and analyzed. The duration of the restored data represents 6 years for Daegu (1863, 1872, 1890, 1897, 1898, and 1902), 3 years for Jinju (1897, 1898, and 1900), and 2 years for Goseong (1871 and 1873). Total number of the restored data was 134, including 83 in Daegu, 25 in Jinju, and 26 in Goseong with the period ranging from March to September. The summer data from June to August accounts for approximately 50% (73 data), while the April data also shows relatively high number of 22, followed by September and March. Most data was collected from March to October, while this time winter data was not found even in October. The rainfall patterns using Chugugi data were investigated. First, the number of days with rainfall by annual mean showed 41 days in Daegu, 39 in Jinju, 33 in Goseong, respectively. In terms of the time series distribution of daily rainfall, the ratio between the number of occurrences with over 40 mm of heavy rainfall and the number of rainy days showed 14 times (8%) in Daegu, 24 (39%) in Jinju, and 4 (6%) in Goseong, respectively. The maximum daily rainfall during the period was recorded with 80mm in Jinju on August 24, 1900. The result of analyzing monthly amount of rainfall clearly indicated more precipitation in summer (June, July and August) with the relatively high records of 284 mm and 422 mm in April, 1872 and July, 1902, respectively, in Daegu, while Jinju recorded the highest value of 506 mm in June, 1898. When comparing the data with those observed by Chugugi in Seoul during the same period from "Seungjeongwonilgi", the monthly rainfall patterns in Daegu and Seoul were quite similar except for the year of 1890 and 1897 in which many data were missing. In particular, in June 1898 the rainfall amount of Jinju recorded as much as 506 mm, almost 4 times of that of Seoul (134 mm). Based on this, it is possible to presume that there was a large amount of the precipitation in the southern region during 1898. According to the calculated result of Wootaek data based on Chugugi observations, the unit of 1 'Ri' and 1 'Seo' in Daegu can be interpreted into 18.6 mm and 7.8 mm. When taking into consideration with the previous result found in Gyeonggi-do (Cho et al., 2013), 1 'Ri' and 1 'Seo' may be close to 20.5 mm and 8.1 mm, however, more future investigations and studies will be essential to verify the exact values.
Pre-processing and Bias Correction for AMSU-A Radiance Data Based on Statistical Methods
Lee, Sihye ; Kim, Sangil ; Chun, Hyoung-Wook ; Kim, Ju-Hye ; Kang, Jeon-Ho ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 491~502
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.491
As a part of the KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) Package for Observation Processing (KPOP), we have developed the modules for Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) pre-processing and its bias correction. The KPOP system calculates the airmass bias correction coefficients via the method of multiple linear regression in which the scan-corrected innovation and the thicknesses of 850~300, 200~50, 50~5, and 10~1 hPa are respectively used for dependent and independent variables. Among the four airmass predictors, the multicollinearity has been shown by the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) that quantifies the severity of multicollinearity in a least square regression. To resolve the multicollinearity, we adopted simple linear regression and Principal Component Regression (PCR) to calculate the airmass bias correction coefficients and compared the results with those from the multiple linear regression. The analysis shows that the order of performances is multiple linear, principal component, and simple linear regressions. For bias correction for the AMSU-A channel 4 which is the most sensitive to the lower troposphere, the multiple linear regression with all four airmass predictors is superior to the simple linear regression with one airmass predictor of 850~300 hPa. The results of PCR with 95% accumulated variances accounted for eigenvalues showed the similar results of the multiple linear regression.
Evaluation of the Numerical Models' Typhoon Track Predictability Based on the Moving Speed and Direction
Shin, Hyeonjin ; Lee, WooJeong ; Kang, KiRyong ; Byun, Kun-Young ; Yun, Won-Tae ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 503~514
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.503
Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performed using along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were useful indicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Since forecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component were greater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrack component. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track error and cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.
Estimation of Energy Use in Residential and Commercial Sectors Attributable to Future Climate Change
Jeong, Jee-Hoon ; Kim, Joo-Hong ; Kim, Baek-Min ; Kim, Jae-Jin ; Yoo, Jin-Ho ; Oh, Jong-Ryul ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 515~522
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.515
In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for residential and commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on the national energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimal base temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calculated. Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with a temperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against the energy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regression model and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a large decrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cooling but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.
Retrieval of Thermal Tropopause Height using Temperature Profile Derived from AMSU-A of Aqua Satellite and its Application
Cho, Young-Jun ; Shin, Dong-Bin ; Kwon, Tae-Yong ; Ha, Jong-Chul ; Cho, Chun-Ho ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 523~532
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.523
In this study, thermal tropopause height defined from WMO (World Meteorological Organization) using temperature profile derived from Advance Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A; hereafter named AMSU) onboard EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite is retrieved. The temperature profile of AMSU was validated by comparison with the radiosonde data observed at Osan weather station. The validation in the upper atmosphere from 500 to 100 hPa pressure level showed that correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.85~0.97 and the bias was less than 1 K with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ~3 K. Thermal tropopause height was retrieved by using AMSU temperature profile. The bias and RMSE were found to be -5~ -37 hPa and 45~67 hPa, respectively. Correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.5 to 0.7. We also analyzed the change of tropopause height and temperature in middle troposphere in the extreme heavy rain event (23 October, 2003) associated with tropopause folding. As a result, the distinct descent of tropopause height and temperature decrease of ~8 K at 500 hPa altitude were observed at the hour that maximum precipitation and maximum wind speed occurred. These results were consistent with ERA (ECMWF Reanalysis)-Interim data (potential vorticity, temperature) in time and space.
The Development of Ensemble Statistical Prediction Model for Changma Precipitation
Kim, Jin-Yong ; Seo, Kyong-Hwan ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 533~540
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.533
Statistical forecast models for the prediction of the summertime Changma precipitation have been developed in this study. As effective predictors for the Changma precipitation, the springtime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic (NA1), the North Pacific (NPC) and the tropical Pacific Ocean (CNINO) has been suggested in Lee and Seo (2013). To further improve the performance of the statistical prediction scheme, we select other potential predictors and construct 2 additional statistical models. The selected predictors are the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the Bering Sea (BS) SST anomalies, and the spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly (EUSC). Then, using the total three statistical prediction models, a simple ensemble-mean prediction is performed. The resulting correlation skill score reaches as high as ~0.90 for the last 21 years, which is ~16% increase in the skill compared to the prediction model by Lee and Seo (2013). The EUSC and BS predictors are related to a strengthening of the Okhotsk high, leading to an enhancement of the Changma front. The NIO predictor induces the cyclonic anomalies to the southwest of the Korean peninsula and southeasterly flows toward the peninsula, giving rise to an increase in the Changma precipitation.
Projection of 21st Century Climate over Korean Peninsula: Temperature and Precipitation Simulated by WRFV3.4 Based on RCP4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios
Ahn, Joong-Bae ; Choi, Yeon-Woo ; Jo, Sera ; Hong, Ja-Young ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 541~554
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.541
Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and 2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and
in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about
in RCP4.5 scenario and
in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF
modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The
mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF
modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above
per year (
) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above
per year (
) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.
Sensitivity Study of Simulated Sea-Ice Concentration and Thickness Using a Global Sea-Ice Model (CICE)
Lee, Su-Bong ; Ahn, Joong-Bae ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 555~563
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.555
The impacts of dynamic and thermodynamic schemes used in the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Los Alamos sea ice model, on sea ice concentration, extent and thickness over the Arctic and Antarctic regions are evaluated. Using the six dynamic and thermodynamic schemes such as sea ice strength scheme, conductivity scheme, albedo type, advection scheme, shortwave radiation method, and sea ice thickness distribution approximation, the sensitivity experiments are conducted. It is compared with a control experiment, which is based on the fixed atmospheric and oceanic forcing. For sea ice concentration and extent, it is found that there are remarkable differences between each sensitivity experiment and the control run over the Arctic and Antarctic especially in summer. In contrast, there are little seasonal variations between the experiments for sea ice thickness. In summer, the change of the albedo type has the biggest influence on the Arctic sea ice concentration, and the Antarctic sea ice concentration has a greater sensitivity to not only the albedo type but also advection scheme. The Arctic sea ice thickness is significantly affected by the albedo type and shortwave radiation method, while the Antarctic sea ice thickness is more sensitive to sea ice strength scheme and advection scheme.
Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in Summer and Autumn over the Western North Pacific and Its Application to Influencing Tropical Cyclones to the Korean Peninsula
Choi, Woosuk ; Ho, Chang-Hoi ; Kang, KiRyong ; Yun, Won-Tae ;
Atmosphere, volume 24, issue 4, 2014, Pages 565~571
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2014.24.4.565
A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracks averaged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC prediction models for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on the current operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedure readily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The user can apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in consideration of their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.