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Korean Meteorological Society
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Volume & Issues
Volume 26, Issue 2 - Jun 2016
Volume 26, Issue 1 - Mar 2016
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Validations of Typhoon Intensity Guidance Models in the Western North Pacific
Oh, You-Jung ; Moon, Il-Ju ; Kim, Sung-Hun ; Lee, Woojeong ; Kang, KiRyong ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 1~18
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.001
Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.
Analysis of the Relationship of Water Vapor with Precipitation for the Winter ESSAY (Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong) Period
Ko, A-Reum ; Kim, Byung-Gon ; Eun, Seung-Hee ; Park, Young-San ; Choi, Byoung-Choel ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 19~33
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.019
Water vapor in the atmosphere is an important element that generates various meteorological phenomena and modifies a hydrological cycle. In general, the Yeongdong region has a lot of snow compared to the other regions in winter due to the complex topography and an adjacent East Sea. However, the phase change from water vapor to ice cloud and further snowfall has little been examined in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigated phase change of liquid water in terms of a quantitative budget as well as time lag of water vapor conversion to snowfall in the ESSAY (Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong) campaign that had been carried out from 2012 to 2015. First, we classified 3 distinctive synoptic patterns such as Low Crossing, Low Passing, and Stagnation. In general, the amount of water vapor of Low Crossing is highest, and Low Passing, Stagnation in order. The snowfall intensity of Stagnation is highest, whereas that of Low Crossing is the lowest, when a sharp increase in water vapor and accordingly a following increase in precipitation are shown with the remarkable time lag. Interestingly, the conversion rate of water vapor to snowfall seems to be higher (about 10%) in case of the Stagnation type in comparison with the other types at Bukgangneung, which appears to be attributable to significant cooling caused by cold surge in the lower atmosphere. Although the snowfall is generally preceded by an increase in water vapor, its amount converted into the snowfall is also controlled by the atmosphere condition such as temperature, super-saturation, etc. These results would be a fundamental resource for an improvement of snowfall forecast in the Yeongdong region and the successful experiment of weather modification in the near future.
Improvement of Soil Moisture Initialization for a Global Seasonal Forecast System
Seo, Eunkyo ; Lee, Myong-In ; Jeong, Jee-Hoon ; Kang, Hyun-Suk ; Won, Duk-Jin ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 35~45
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.035
Initialization of the global seasonal forecast system is as much important as the quality of the embedded climate model for the climate prediction in sub-seasonal time scale. Recent studies have emphasized the important role of soil moisture initialization, suggesting a significant increase in the prediction skill particularly in the mid-latitude land area where the influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics is less crucial and the potential predictability is supplemented by land-atmosphere interaction. This study developed a new soil moisture initialization method applicable to the KMA operational seasonal forecasting system. The method includes first the long-term integration of the offline land surface model driven by observed atmospheric forcing and precipitation. This soil moisture reanalysis is given for the initial state in the ensemble seasonal forecasts through a simple anomaly initialization technique to avoid the simulation drift caused by the systematic model bias. To evaluate the impact of the soil moisture initialization, two sets of long-term, 10-member ensemble experiment runs have been conducted for 1996~2009. As a result, the soil moisture initialization improves the prediction skill of surface air temperature significantly at the zero to one month forecast lead (up to ~60 days forecast lead), although the skill increase in precipitation is less significant. This study suggests that improvements of the prediction in the sub-seasonal timescale require the improvement in the quality of initial data as well as the adequate treatment of the model systematic bias.
Investigation of Goyang Tornado Outbreak Using X-band Polarimetric Radar: 10 June 2014
Jeong, Jong-Hoon ; Kim, Yeon-Hee ; Oh, Su-Bin ; Lim, Eunha ; Joo, Sangwon ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 47~58
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.047
On 10 July 2014, tornado outbreak occurred over Goyang province in Korea. This was the first supercell tornado ever reported or documented in Korea. The characteristics of the supercell tornado were investigated using an X-band polarimetric radar, surface meteorological observation, wind profiler, and operational numerical weather prediction (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System, RDAPS). The supercell tornado developed along a preexisting dryline that was contributed to surface wind shear. The radar analyses examined here show that the supercell tornado indicated a hook echo with mesocyclone. The decending reflectivity core as well was detected before tornadogenesis and prior to intensification of supercell. The supercell tornado exhibited characteristics similar to typical supercell tornado over the Great Plains of the United States, such as hook echo, bounded weak echo region, and slower movement speed relative to the mean wind. Compared to the typical supercell tornado over U.S., this tornado showed horizontal scale of the mesocyclone was relatively smaller and left-mover.
Verification and Comparison of Forecast Skill between Global Seasonal Forecasting System Version 5 and Unified Model during 2014
Lee, Sang-Min ; Kang, Hyun-Suk ; Kim, Yeon-Hee ; Byun, Young-Hwa ; Cho, ChunHo ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 59~72
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.059
The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere-ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.
On the Occurrence Mechanism of the Ice Spike
Byun, Hi-Ryong ; Yoon, Ma-Byong ; Shim, Jae-Myun ; Kim, Gabyn ; Kwon, Sang-Hoon ; Kwon, Hui-nae ; Kim, Jin-Ah ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 73~84
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.073
A method to make ice spike using home refrigerator with ice tray was found. Many experiments have carried out with this method and many natural phenomena occurring on the formation of ice spike are found. A new concept of the Latter Freezing Water (LFW) was imported to explain the ice spike formation. At LFW position on water surface, the Sprout of Super cooled Water (SSW) grows by the Volume Expansion Effect (VEE) caused by the phase change of water in water. And air bubbles that are expelled from ice during freezing process, gather, rise, and detonate at the upper most part of SSW that make SSW freeze and grow upward with the water pipe in it. Together with VEE the capillarity in the water pipe makes the column grow more, that makes the ice spike. Many other findings were succeeded; 1) Ice spike process is completed before the whole water freezes. 2) If water is corrupted or shocked, even though it is very slight, ice spike is not generated. 3) Rain water contains the most LFW among all kind of waters used in experiments. 4) LFW is changed into normal water after passing the ice spike. 5) A new concept of the ice bullet is introduced. 6) The reason of frequent occurrences of the ice spike at Mt. Mai is investigated also.
A Study on Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Domain Size with a Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model
Min, Jae-Sik ; Roh, Joon-Woo ; Jee, Joon-Bum ; Kim, Sangil ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 85~95
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.085
In this study, we investigated the variabilities of wind speed of 850 hPa and precipitable water over the East Asia region using the NCEP Final Analysis data from December 2001 to November 2011. A large variance of wind speed was observed in northern and eastern China during the winter period. During summer, the regions of the East China Sea, the South Sea of Japan and the East Sea show large variances in the wind speed caused by an extended North Pacific High and typhoon activities. The large variances in the wind speed in the regions are shown to be correlated with the inter-annual variability of precipitable water over the inland region of windward side of the Korean Peninsula. Based on the investigation, sensitivity tests to the domain size were performed using the WRF model version 3.6 for heavy precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula for 26 and 27 July 2011. Numerical experiments of different domain sizes were set up with 5 km horizontal and 50 levels vertical resolutions for the control and the first experimental run, and 9 km horizontal for the second experimental run. We found that the major rainfalls correspond to shortwave troughs with baroclinic structure over Northeast China and extended North Pacific High. The correlation analysis between the observation and experiments for 1-h precipitation indicated that the second experiment with the largest domain had the best performance with the correlation coefficient of 0.79 due to the synoptic-scale systems such as short-wave troughs and North Pacific High.
Three-dimensional Analysis of Heavy Rainfall Using KLAPS Re-analysis Data
Jang, Min ; You, Cheol-Hwan ; Jee, Joon-Bum ; Park, Sung-Hwa ; Kim, Sang-il ; Choi, Young-Jean ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 97~109
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.097
Heavy rainfall (over
) system associated with unstable atmospheric conditions occurred over the Seoul metropolitan area on 27 July 2011. To investigate the heavy rainfall system, we used three-dimensional data from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) reanalysis data and analysed the structure of the precipitation system, kinematic characteristics, thermodynamic properties, and Meteorological condition. The existence of Upper-Level Jet (ULJ) and Low-Level Jet (LLJ) are accelerated the heavy rainfall. Convective cloud developed when a strong southwesterly LLJ and strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Environmental conditions included high equivalent potential temperature of over 355 K at low levels, and low equivalent potential temperature of under 330 K at middle levels, causing vertical instability. The tip of the band shaped precipitation system was made up of line-shaped convective systems (LSCSs) that caused flooding and landslides, and the LSCSs were continuously enhanced by merging between new cells and the pre-existing cell. Difference of wind direction between low and middle levels has also been considered an important factor favouring the occurrence of precipitation systems similar to LSCSs. Development of LSCs from the wind direction difference at heights of the severe precipitation occurrence area was also identified. This study can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of severe weather.
Sensitivity Analysis of the High-Resolution WISE-WRF Model with the Use of Surface Roughness Length in Seoul Metropolitan Areas
Jee, Joon-Bum ; Jang, Min ; Yi, Chaeyeon ; Zo, Il-Sung ; Kim, Bu-Yo ; Park, Moon-Soo ; Choi, Young-Jean ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 111~126
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.111
In the numerical weather model, surface properties can be defined by various parameters such as terrain height, landuse, surface albedo, soil moisture, surface emissivity, roughness length and so on. And these parameters need to be improved in the Seoul metropolitan area that established high-rise and complex buildings by urbanization at a recent time. The surface roughness length map is developed from digital elevation model (DEM) and it is implemented to the high-resolution numerical weather (WISE-WRF) model. Simulated results from WISE-WRF model are analyzed the relationship between meteorological variables to changes in the surface roughness length. Friction speed and wind speed are improved with various surface roughness in urban, these variables affected to temperature and relative humidity and hence the surface roughness length will affect to the precipitation and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) height. When surface variables by the WISE-WRF model are validated with Automatic Weather System (AWS) observations, NEW experiment is able to simulate more accurate than ORG experiment in temperature and wind speed. Especially, wind speed is overestimated over
on some AWS stations in Seoul and surrounding area but it improved with positive correlation and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) below
in whole area. There are close relationship between surface roughness length and wind speed, and the change of surface variables lead to the change of location and duration of precipitation. As a result, the accuracy of WISE-WRF model is improved with the new surface roughness length retrieved from DEM, and its surface roughness length is important role in the high-resolution WISE-WRF model. By the way, the result in this study need various validation from retrieved the surface roughness length to numerical weather model simulations with observation data.
The Study of Correlations between Air-Sea Temperature Difference and Precipitation and between Wind and Precipitation in the Yeongdong Coastal Region in Relation to the Siberian High
Song, Ji-Ae ; Lee, Jae Gyoo ; Kim, Yu-Jin ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 127~140
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.127
In this study, the correlations between AST850 and precipitation, and those between WDT and precipitation in the Yeongdong coastal region under the direct/indirect influence of the expansion of cP (continental polar air mass) high were quantitatively analyzed based on the winter season data for the last 20 years, according to surface pressure patterns such as Type 1 (cP high expansion type), Type 2 (cP high expansion + trough type), Type 4 (South trough type), and Type 5 (East Sea trough type). Here, AST850 represents 'sea surface temperature minus temperature on 850 hPa level' and WDT represents 'a speed of 1000 hPa wind projected onto a certain wind direction times precipitation duration in hour'. First, the correlation coefficients between AST850 and precipitation in Type 1, Type 2, and Type 5 cases were 0.253, 0.384, and 0.398 respectively, indicating that a tendency of increasing precipitation linearly with the value of AST850 is slightly presented. In the case of Type 4, however, the coefficient was -0.15, representing almost no linear correlation between AST850 and precipitation. In the correlation between WDT and precipitation, there was the largest correlation coefficient (0.464) between WDT along a direction of
and at EN1 in Type 1 cases. In the case of Type 2, there was the largest correlation coefficient (0.767) between WDT along a direction of
and at ES1. In the case of Type 4, there was the largest correlation coefficient (0.559) between WDT along a direction of
and at EN2. Finally, in the case of Type 5, there was the largest correlation coefficient (0.945) between WDT along a direction of
and at SE1, representing the largest coefficient among the types. It was found that surface wind directions with the highest correlations to precipitation in the Yeongdong coastal area on winter season were varied according to surface pressure patterns, and that the correlations between WDT and precipitation were higher than those between AST850 and precipitation.
Impact of Urban Canopy and High Horizontal Resolution on Summer Convective Rainfall in Urban Area: A case Study of Rainfall Events on 16 August 2015
Lee, Young-Hee ; Min, Ki-Hong ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 141~158
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.141
The objective of this study is to examine the impact of urban canopy and the horizontal resolution on simulated meteorological variables such as 10-m wind speed, 2-m temperature and precipitation using WRF model for a local, convective rainfall case. We performed four sensitivity tests by varying the use of urban canopy model (UCM) and the horizontal resolution, then compared the model results with observations of AWS network. The focus of our study is over the Seoul metropolitan area for a convective rainfall that occurred on 16 August 16 2015. The analysis shows that mean diurnal variation of temperature is better simulated by the model runs with UCM before the convective rainfall. However, after rainfall, model shows significant difference in air temperature among sensitivity tests depending on the simulated rainfall amount. The rainfall amount is significantly underestimated in 0.5 km resolution model run compared to 1.5 km resolution, particularly over the urban areas. This is due to earlier occurrence of light rainfall in 0.5 km resolution model. Earlier light rainfall in the afternoon eliminates convective instability significantly, which prevents occurrence of rainfall later in the evening. The use of UCM results in a higher maximum rainfall in the domain, which is due to higher temperature in model runs with urban canopy. Earlier occurrence of rainfall in 0.5 km resolution model is related to rapid growth of PBL. Enhanced mixing and higher temperature result in rapid growth of PBL, which provides more favorable conditions for convection in the 0.5 km resolution run with urban canopy. All sensitivity tests show dry bias, which also contributes to the occurrence of light precipitation throughout the simulation period.
A Numerical Simulation Study of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Daegwallyeong on 31 July 2014
Choi, Seung-Bo ; Lee, Jae Gyoo ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 159~183
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.159
On 31 July 2014, there was a localized torrential rainfall (
) caused by a strong convective cell with thunder showers over Daegwallyeong. In the surface synoptic chart, a typhoon was positioned in the East China Sea and the subtropical high was expanded to the Korean peninsula. A WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) numerical simulation with a resolution of 1 km was performed for a detailed analysis. The simulation result showed a similar pattern in a reflectivity distribution particularly over the Gangwon-do region, compared with the radar reflectivity. According to the results of the WRF simulation, the process and mechanism of the localized heavy rainfall over Daegwallyeong are as follows: (1) a convective instability over the middle part of the Korean peninsula was enhanced due to the low level advection of warm and humid air from the North Pacific high. (2) There was easterly flow from the coast to the mountainous regions around Daegwallyeong, which was generated by the differential heating of the insolation among Daegwallyeong and the Yeongdong coastal plain, and nearby coastal waters. (3) In addition, westerly flow from the western part of Daegwallyeong caused a strong convergence in this region, generating a strong upward motion combined by an orographic effect. (4) This brought about a new convective cell over Daegwallyeong. And this cell was more developed by the outflow from another thunderstorm cell to the south, and finally these two cells were merged to develop as a strong convective cell with thunder showers, leading to the record breaking maximum rainfall per hour (
) in July.
A Study of Historical Seasonal Subdivision System and Modern Definitional Issue of Meteorological Seasons
Kim, Il-Gwon ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 185~192
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.185
In this paper, I studied about historical seasonal subdivision system and a theory of traditional monthly order, which was used for so long from Koryo dynasty to the late of Choseon dynasty in Korean histoy. Especially, I took note of the fact that there used the table of solar terms and meteorological observation what we called the table of Kihoo-pyo in the historical Sunmyung-calendar and the Soosi-calendar during the Koryo dynasty. This table of Kihoo was developed for explaining meteorological change during a year at that time. Here are largely four elements related meteorological nature : the first is the list of 24 solar terms, and the second is 12 monthly seasonal terms and 12 monthly central terms, the third is about four right hexagon based I-ching, the fourth is 72 meteorological observations called 72-hoo. Among them, the 72-hoo system is important to know how premodern people observed natural materials including animals and plants, weather, climate about meteorological phenomena according to the seasonal change or solar terms' change during a year. I argued in this article to need developing modern new table of Kihoo system like that, in order to show common people to recognize annual meteorological change more easy and clear. I also argued to need a distinct definition of meteorological seasons from a view point of modern meteorology.
Relationship between the East-Asian Cold Anomalies in Winter of 2010/11 and Blocking
Choi, Wookap ; Kim, Young-Ah ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 193~201
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.193
An anomalous cold-weather period occurred during January 2011 in East Asia, and this study investigates the event by focusing on the blocking phenomena formed at Northeastern Asia. The area of cold weather is determined to represent the characteristic features of abnormal cold temperature. The 2010/11 winter is divided into three periods P1, P2 (cold period), and P3. For the cold area (
) the corresponding cold period P2 is determined to be 39 days from 23 December 2010 through 30 January 2011. During P1 and P3 temperature anomalies from the climatological mean are small with large standard deviation compared to those of P2, which has large negative anomaly and small standard deviation. The period P2 is dominated by blocking, which was determined by distributions of 500-hPa geopotential height and potential temperature on the 2 PVU surface. Correlation-coefficient analyses show that during P2 the temperature in the cold area is related with pressure of Northeastern Asia, while the temperature during P1 and P3 is related with pressure of Northwest of Korea. Also, during P1 and P3 the temperature pattern shows eastward propagation, but during P2, a stationary pattern. All the observations imply that, during the cold period P2, the temperature in the cold area is related with blocking in Northeastern Asia. During P1 and P3 temperature pattern is related with 500-hPa geopotential height in Siberia, and this relationship is also observed in the climatological mean state.
Assessment of Stratospheric Prediction Skill of the GloSea5 Hindcast Experiment
Jung, Myungil ; Son, Seok-Woo ; Lim, Yuna ; Song, Kanghyun ; Won, DukJin ; Kang, Hyun-Suk ;
Atmosphere, volume 26, issue 1, 2016, Pages 203~214
DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.203
This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of stratospheric temperature and circulations in the Global Seasonal forecasting model version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast experiment over the period of 1996~2009. Both the tropical and extratropical circulations are considered by analyzing the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex (NHPV). Their prediction skills are quantitatively evaluated by computing the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) and Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS), and compared with those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Stratospheric temperature is generally better predicted than tropospheric temperature. Such improved prediction skill, however, rapidly disappears in a month, and a reliable prediction skill is observed only in the tropics, indicating a higher prediction skill in the tropics than in the extratropics. Consistent with this finding, QBO is well predicted more than 6 months in advance. Its prediction skill is significant in all seasons although a relatively low prediction skill appears in the spring when QBO phase transition often takes place. This seasonality is qualitatively similar to the spring barrier of ENSO prediction skill. In contrast, NHPV exhibits no prediction skill beyond one month as in AO prediction skill. In terms of MSSS, both QBO and NHPV are better predicted than their counterparts in the troposphere, i.e., ENSO and AO, indicating that the GloSea5 has a higher prediction skill in the stratosphere than in the troposphere.