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REFERENCE LINKING PLATFORM OF KOREA S&T JOURNALS
> Journal Vol & Issue
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Journal Basic Information
Journal DOI :
Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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Volume & Issues
Volume 14, Issue 4 - Dec 2012
Volume 14, Issue 3 - Sep 2012
Volume 14, Issue 2 - Jun 2012
Volume 14, Issue 1 - Mar 2012
Selecting the target year
Combining Bias-correction on Regional Climate Simulations and ENSO Signal for Water Management: Case Study for Tampa Bay, Florida, U.S.
Hwang, Syewoon ; Hernandez, Jose ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 143~154
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.143
As demand of water resources and attentions to changes in climate (e.g., due to ENSO) increase, long/short term prediction of precipitation is getting necessary in water planning. This research evaluated the ability of MM5 to predict precipitation in the Tampa Bay region over 23 year period from 1986 to 2008. Additionally MM5 results were statistically bias-corrected using observation data at 33 stations over the study area using CDF-mapping approach and evaluated comparing to raw results for each ENSO phase (i.e., El Ni
o and La Ni
a). The bias-corrected model results accurately reproduced the monthly mean point precipitation values. Areal average daily/monthly precipitation predictions estimated using block-kriging algorithm showed fairly high accuracy with mean error of daily precipitation, 0.8 mm and mean error of monthly precipitation, 7.1 mm. The results evaluated according to ENSO phase showed that the accuracy in model output varies with the seasons and ENSO phases. Reasons for low predictions skills and alternatives for simulation improvement are discussed. A comprehensive evaluation including sensitivity to physics schemes, boundary conditions reanalysis products and updating land use maps is suggested to enhance model performance. We believe that the outcome of this research guides to a better implementation of regional climate modeling tools in water management at regional/seasonal scale.
Estimation of the Periodic Extremes of Minimum Air Temperature Using January Mean of Daily Minimum Air Temperature in Korea
Moon, Kyung Hwan ; Son, In Chang ; Seo, Hyeong Ho ; Choi, Kyung San ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 155~160
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.155
This study was conducted to develop a practical method for estimating the extremes of minimum air temperature with given return-period based on the frequency distribution of daily minimum air temperature in January. Daily temperature data were collected from 61 meteorological observatories country-wide from 1961 to 2010. Most of daily minimum temperature in January could be represented by a normal-distribution, so it is possible to predict stochastically the lowest temperature by the mean and standard deviation. We developed a quadratic function to estimate standard deviation in terms of daily minimum temperature in January. Also, we introduced a coefficient which can be used to predict an extreme of minimum temperature with mean and standard deviation, and is dependent on return-periods. Using this method, we were able to reproduce the past 30-year extremes with an error of 1.1 on average and 5.3 in the worst case.
Geographical Migration of Winter Barley in the Korean Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition
Kim, Dae-Jun ; Kim, Jin-Hee ; Roh, Jae-Hwan ; Yun, Jin I. ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 161~169
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.161
The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as 'winter-barley after rice' could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.
Relationshps between Wild Mushroom Appearance and Meteorological Elements in Chiak National Park, Korea
Shim, Kyo-Moon ; Kim, Yong-Seok ; Kim, Gun-Yeob ; Lee, Deog-Bae ; Kang, Ki-Keong ; So, Kyu-Ho ; Lee, Kang-Hyo ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 170~178
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.170
In this study, in order to provide an information for artificial cultivation of wild mushroom, the meteorological effects on wild mushroom appearance were examined using daily meteorological observations in Chiak National Park. The survey of wild mushroom appearance was carried out once a month from June to October. Under high temperature and humidity conditions in July and August, the appearance of wild mushroom was frequent. In contrast, lower number of wild mushroom appeared in October. Wild mushroom appearance was affected by solar radiation, relative humidity, precipitation, and soil water content whereas the impact of air and soil temperature was lower than that of other meteorological elements.
Geographical Shift in Blooming Date of Kiwifruits in Jeju Island by Global Warming
Kwon, Young-Soon ; Kim, Soo-Ock ; Seo, Hyeong-Ho ; Moon, Kyung-Hwan ; Yun, Jin I. ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 179~188
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.179
A kiwifruit cultivar 'Hayward' has been grown in Jeju Island where the current climate is suitable for growth and development of this crop. Prediction of the geographical shift in the phenology can help the kiwifruits growers to adapt to the local climate change in the future. Two phenology models (i.e., chill-day and DVS) were parameterized to estimate flowering date of kiwifruits 'Hayward' based on the data collected from field plots and chamber experiments in the southern coastal and island locations in South Korea. Spatio-temporally independent datasets were used to evaluate performance of the two models in predicting flowering date of 'Hayward'. Chill-day model showed better performance than DVS model (2.5 vs. 4.0 days in RMSE). Daily temperature data interpolated at a higher spatial resolution over Jeju Island were used to predict flowering dates of 'Hayward' in 2021-2100 under the A1B scenario. According to the model calculation under the future climate condition, the flowering of kiwifruits shall accelerate and the area with poor flowering might increase due to the warmer winter induced insufficient chilling. Optimal land area for growing 'Hayward' could increase for a while in the near future (2021-2030), whereas such areas could decrease to one half of the current areas by 2100. The geographic locations suitable for 'Hayward' cultivation would migrate from the current coastal area to the elevated mountain area by 250 m.
Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date of 'Yumyeong' (Prunus persica) Peach Trees
Yun, Seok Kyu ; Chung, Kyeong Ho ; Yoon, Ik Koo ; Nam, Eun Young ; Han, Jeom Hwa ; Yu, Duk Jun ; Lee, Hee Jae ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 189~195
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.189
To predict the blooming date of 'Yumyeong' peach trees, the models for flower bud developmental rate (DVR) were constructed. The DVRs were calculated from the demanded times at controlled air temperatures. The branches of 'Yumyeong' peach trees were incubated at three different temperatures of 9.7, 15.2, and
. The DVRs were also constructed with blooming dates and air temperatures in the field, collected from 1979 to 2008 at the experimental orchard of National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Suwon, Korea. All the DVRs increased linearly or exponentially with air temperature. The DVR equations evaluated under controlled air temperatures were y=0.0018x+0.0051 and y=
. The DVR equations under field conditions were calculated as y=0.0039x-0.0112 and y=
. These DVR equations offer developmental indices and predict the date for blooming with air temperature data. These DVR equations were validated against the blooming data observed in the field. When the blooming dates were calculated with exponential DVR equations and daily air temperature data, the root mean squared errors between the observed and predicted dates were around 2 days. These results suggest that the DVR models are useful to predict the blooming date of 'Yumyeong' peach trees.
Seasonal Change in C
Mixed Vegetation Populations over Paddy Levees in South Korea
Kim, Myung-Hyun ; Oh, Young-Ju ; Kim, Miran ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 196~206
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.196
Studies of seasonal changes in
mixed communities are rare, particularly in Asian summer monsoon climate zones. In our present study, seasonal changes in the profile and coverage of
plants were investigated in 2009 in Haenam, Yeongdong and Cheorwon regions of South Korea (all at different latitudes). The aim was to estimate the impacts of temperature and sunshine duration on species composition and transition timing of the
plants. From our results, the number of
plants was found to increase from early spring to mid-May, and then decrease again until September in the Haenam and Yeongdong regions, but continuously increase from early spring to September in the Cheorwon region under relatively low summer temperatures. On the other hand, the number of
plants increased from June or July to September in all three regions. These seasonal changes in species number and ratio have a direct impact upon species diversity which is highest when there are no dominant species. The relative coverage and relative summed dominance ratio (SDR') of the
plants decreased from spring to autumn, but increased for the
plants during this time in an exponential fashion with increasing accumulated temperature and sunshine duration. The transition timing from
plants occurred when the sum of sunshine duration for the days with daily mean temperature above
was 1017 hrs for the SDR'.
Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptation Method in Korea as Evaluated by Simulation Study
Lee, Chung-Kuen ; Kim, Junwhan ; Shon, Jiyoung ; Yang, Woon-Ho ; Yoon, Young-Hwan ; Choi, Kyung-Jin ; Kim, Kwang-Soo ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 207~221
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.207
Air temperature in Korea has increased by
over the last 100 years, which is nearly twice the global average rate during the same period. Moreover, it is projected that such change in temperature will continue in the 21st century. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice production and adaptation methods in Korea. Climate data for the baseline (1971~2000) and the three future climate (2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100) at fifty six sites in South Korea under IPCC SRES A1B scenario were used as the input to the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Six experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the combined effects of climatic warming,
fertilization, and cropping season on rice production. We found that the average production in 2071~2100 would decrease by 23%, 27%, and 29% for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were fixed. In contrast, predicted yield reduction was ~0%, 6%, and 7%, for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were changed. Analysis of variation suggested that climatic warming,
fertilization, cropping season, and rice maturing type contributed 60, 10, 12, and 2% of rice yield, respectively. In addition, regression analysis suggested 14~46 and 53~86% of variations in rice yield were explained by grain number and filled grain ratio, respectively, when cropping season was fixed. On the other hand, 46~78 and 22~53% of variations were explained respectively with changing cropping season. It was projected that sterility caused by high temperature would have no effect on rice yield. As a result, rice yield reduction in the future climate in Korea would resulted from low filled grain ratio due to high growing temperature during grain-filling period because the
fertilization was insufficient to negate the negative effect of climatic warming. However, adjusting cropping seasons to future climate change may alleviate the rice production reduction by minimizing negative effect of climatic warming without altering positive effect of
fertilization, which improves weather condition during the grain-filling period.
Natural Regeneration Patten of Pine Seedlings on the Burned Forest Site in Gosung, Korea
Lim, Joo-Hoon ; Kim, Jeong-Hwan ; Bae, Sang-Won ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 222~228
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.222
This study was conducted to determine the natural succession process after forest fire by comparing height, relative growth rates in height (RGH), and tree density of pine seedlings with different fire severity. In the area damaged by surface fire, tree density was highest during the first 5 years after fire. However, in the area damaged by crown fire, tree density rapidly increased during first 5 years after fire. Pine seedlings were found only on the place with ridges, barren soil, and the aspect of north. Annual height growth of pine seedlings was decreased with time in all study sites. The empty space in pine stands gradually decreased by the invasion of Quercus species. The forest fire altered the pine forest into oak forest rapidly. In contrast, pine seedlings invaded steadily on the oak forest in the rocky area or the area with ridges.
Climatic Factors Affecting Bud Flush Timing of Pinus densiflora Provenances
Kim, In Sik ; Ryu, Keun Ok ; Lee, Joo Whan ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 229~235
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.229
This study was conducted to investigate the climatic factors affecting bud phenology of Pinus densiflora provenances. Data were collected from Jungseon, Chungju and Jeju plantations which were parts of the 11 provenance trials established by Korea Forest Research Institute in 1996. The 36 provenances were included in this trial (
in latitude and
in longitude). The bud swelling date and bud burst date of the provenances were investigated from March to May in 2004 in two-day interval. The four geographic factors and fifteen climatic factors of the test sites and provenances were considered in this study. Canonical correlation analysis was conducted to examine the major factors affecting the bud phenology. Our results suggested that the major factors affecting the timing of bud swelling and burst are the differences in latitude, longitude, extremely low temperature (during December-February), extremely high temperature (during November-February) and annual mean growing days between test plantation and provenance. The provenances with lower winter temperature than that of plantation showed the faster bud swelling and bud burst. Based on these results, the implication on the seed transfer of P. densiflora was discussed.
Growth and Heritability of Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) Families in Jeju
Choi, Hyung-Soon ; Kang, Young-Je ; Kim, In-Sik ; Park, Young-Kyu ; Ryu, Keun-Ok ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 236~245
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.236
This research was performed to analyze growth performance and pattern of eighteen families of hinoki cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa), which were imported in Jeju region. The growths of 'Yako-7', 'Muei-1', and 'Sangsong-9' families were superior to other families whereas those of 'Sanguen-3', 'Yago-6', and 'Hyena-2' families were poor. The height growth between age 9-year to 15-year was superior to those between other ages. No specific growth pattern was observed in the diameter at breast height (DBH) by ages. Family heritability of height, DBH, and volume were estimated at 0.68, 0.75, and 0.75, respectively. Pearson's correlation analysis showed that there was little juvenile-mature correlation in the growth of C. obtusa.
A Survey Low Temperature Damage of Tea Tree at South Korea in 2011
Hwang, Jung-Gyu ; Kim, Yong-Duck ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 246~253
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.246
Despite frequent freezing injury to tea trees due low temperature, drought, and strong wind during wintertime, no comprehensive measurements have been taken. We selected and examined 9 locations in Hwagae-myeon and 4 places in Agyang-myeon, Hadong-gun, Gyeonsanggnam-do where low temperature damage had occurred between December 2010 and February 2011. Our objective is to examine the effect of frost damage on the morphological symptom and harvest of a tea tree exposed to a constant low temperature environment during wintertime. The results of our analyses on meteorological environment, tea leaf chromaticity, water content and trypan blue are as follows: (1) the number of days with temperature of
or less, which were subject to frost damage to a tea tree were 8 and 13.6% during the winterization period in 2011; (2) the accumulated time was 1,308 minutes, and the longest duration at
was 588 minutes from 21:08 p.m. 15 January to 7:30 a.m.
January. The rainfall was only 104 mm which was 306 mm less than the previous year; (3) the lightness L values in 2011 were higher than in 2012 due to dehydration and necrosis by blue discoloration and red discoloration at all areas in chromaticity measurement; (4) the water content in a tea leaf in 2011 was higher than in 2012 due to low rainfall and strong wind, and almost no cell death phenomenon was observed from normal tea leaves subject to no low temperature stress in a trypan blue analysis; and (5) partial coloration due to cell death, however, took place in the leaves damaged by blue discoloration subject to low temperature stress, and most coloration due to cell death took place in the leaves damaged by red discoloration.
Peeling Damage of Sapling caused by the Developing Process of Roe Deer Antlers in Warm-temperate Forests of Jeju Island
Kim, Eun Mi ; Park, Youngkyu ; Kwon, Jino ; Kim, Ji Eun ; Kang, Chang Wan ; Lee, Chi Bong ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 254~259
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.254
Peeling damage of trees is usually caused by Cervidae such as deer, roe deer because of the lack of food in forests. However, it happens as part of the developing of antlers in Jeju Island when the roe deer try to remove the Velvet-the skin of the antlers. The research area is the Hannam experimental forest (400 m up to 500 m above sea level) of Korea Forest Research Institute in Jeju Island, and the survey was carried out along the 6 km long of forest road with 5 m width on both sides. Twenty five tree species (total 267 stands) are damaged by peeling; 18 (134 stands) deciduous broad-leaved species, 5 (71 stands) in evergreen broad-leaved species, 2 (62 stands) coniferous species. The most common damaged species are in order of Daphniphyllum macropodum, Cryptomeria japonica, Lindera erythrocarpa, Clerodendrum trichotomum, Zanthoxylum schinifolium. Mainly damaged trees are approximately 3~4 years old saplings, and they show the mean height
, diameter measured at 5 cm height
. The Lowest peeling beginning height is
, and the mean length of peeling is
. Once the peeling damage happens, the saplings are infected by fungi secondly, and are distorted or dead, therefore the future structure of warm-temperate forests could be in influenced in species. Warm-temperate forest landscape and species change related to the climate change is a rising issue in Jeju Island. However the changes caused by peeling damage also could be an important issue in the natural process of forest environment, afforestation, local nursery and sustainable forest management of Jeju Island.
Applicability of Daily Solar Radiation Estimated by Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) in Korea
Shim, Kyo Moon ; Kim, Yong Seok ; Lee, Deog Bae ; Kang, Ki Keong ; So, Kyo-Ho ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 260~264
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.260
Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination (
) between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of
which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation (
) for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer's tolerance is
of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MT-CLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient.
Development and Evaluation of the Forecast Models for Daily Pollen Allergy
Kim, Kyu Rang ; Park, Ki-Jun ; Lee, Hye-Rim ; Kim, Mijin ; Choi, Young-Jean ; Oh, Jae-Won ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 265~268
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.265
There are increasing number of allergic patients due to the increasing outdoor activities and allergenic pollens by local climate changes. Korea Meteorological Administration provides daily forecasts for pollen allergy warnings on the Internet. The forecast models are composed of pollen concentration models and risk grade levels. The accuracy of the models was determined in terms of risk grade. Pollen concentration models were developed using the observed data during from 2001 to 2006 and accuracy was validated against the data during from 2010 to 2011. The accuracy was different from location to location. The accuracy for most tree species was higher in April than that in May. The accuracy for weed species was higher in October than in September. Our result suggest that the models presented in this study can be used to estimate daily number and risk grade of pollens.
Comparison of Statistic Methods for Evaluating Crop Model Performance
Kim, Junhwan ; Lee, Chung-Kuen ; Shon, Jiyoung ; Choi, Kyung-Jin ; Yoon, Younghwan ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 269~276
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.269
The objective of this short communication is to introduce several evaluation methods to crop model users because the evaluation of crop model performance is an important step to develop or select crop model. In this paper, mean error, mean absolute error, index of agreement, root mean square error, efficiency of model, accuracy factor and bias factor were explained and compared in terms of dimension and observed number. Efficiency of model and index of agreement are dimensionless and independent of number of observation. Relative root mean square, accuracy factor and bias factor are dimensionless and not independent of number of observation. Mean error and mean absolute error are affected by dimension and number of observation.
Wind Effect on the Distribution of Daily Minimum Temperature Across a Cold Pooling Catchment
Kim, Soo-Ock ; Kim, Jin-Hee ; Kim, Dae-Jun ; Yun, Jin I. ;
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, volume 14, issue 4, 2012, Pages 277~282
DOI : 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.277
When wind speed exceeds a certain threshold, daily minimum temperature does not drop as predicted by the geospatial model in a cold pooling catchment. A linear regression equation was derived to explain the warming effect of wind speed on daily minimum temperature by analyzing observations at a low lying location within an enclosed catchment. The equation, Y=2X+0.4 (
=0.76) where Y stands for the warming (
) and X for the mean horizontal wind speed (m/s) at 2m height, was combined to an existing model to predict daily minimum temperature across an enclosed catchment on cold pooling days. The adjusted model was applied to 3 locations submerged in a cold air pool to predict daily minimum temperature on 25 cold pooling days with the input of simulated wind speed at each location. Results showed that bias (mean error) was reduced from -1.33 to -0.37 and estimation error (RMSE) from 1.72 to 1.20, respectively, in comparison with those from the unadjusted model.