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REFERENCE LINKING PLATFORM OF KOREA S&T JOURNALS
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Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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Journal DOI :
Korea Water Resources Association
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Volume & Issues
Volume 49, Issue 8 - Aug 2016
Volume 49, Issue 7 - Jul 2016
Volume 49, Issue 6 - Jun 2016
Volume 49, Issue 5 - May 2016
Volume 49, Issue 4 - Apr 2016
Volume 49, Issue 3 - Mar 2016
Volume 49, Issue 2 - Feb 2016
Volume 49, Issue 1 - Jan 2016
Selecting the target year
Determination of drought events considering the possibility of relieving drought and estimation of design drought severity
Yoo, Ji Young ; Yu, Ji Soo ; Kwon, Hyun-Han ; Kim, Tae-Woong ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 275~282
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.275
The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.
Stochastic disaggregation of daily rainfall based on K-Nearest neighbor resampling method
Park, HeeSeong ; Chung, GunHui ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 283~291
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.283
As the infrastructures and populations are the condensed in the mega city, urban flood management becomes very important due to the severe loss of lives and properties. For the more accurate calculation of runoff from the urban catchment, hourly or even minute rainfall data have been utilized. However, the time steps of the measured or forecasted data under climate change scenarios are longer than hourly, which causes the difficulty on the application. In this study, daily rainfall data was disaggregated into hourly using the stochastic method. Based on the historical hourly precipitation data, Gram Schmidt orthonormalization process and K-Nearest Neighbor Resampling (KNNR) method were applied to disaggregate daily precipitation into hourly. This method was originally developed to disaggregate yearly runoff data into monthly. Precipitation data has smaller probability density than runoff data, therefore, rainfall patterns considering the previous and next days were proposed as 7 different types. Disaggregated rainfall was resampled from the only same rainfall patterns to improve applicability. The proposed method was applied rainfall data observed at Seoul weather station where has 52 years hourly rainfall data and the disaggregated hourly data were compared to the measured data. The proposed method might be applied to disaggregate the climate change scenarios.
Analysis of drought characteristics depending on RCP scenarios at Korea
Kim, Jungho ; Kim, Sangdan ; Joo, Jingul ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 293~303
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.293
This study implemented a comparison of SPI characteristics in terms of quantitative and spatial analysis depending on four RCP scenarios. For this purpose, we compared quantitative characteristics of drought using standard precipitation index resulted from daily precipitation data reflecting future green gas concentration scenarios, and spatial distribution field of seasonal drought occurrence frequency and its duration, was analyzed to compare drought trends depending on the RCP scenarios. As a result, we found that SPI time series was quite different from each other and correlation coefficients were lower than 0.08. Depending on the RCP scenarios, spatial distribution results showed different trends in drought severity, frequency, and duration. The biggest reason of the difference is daily precipitation data based on the different greenhouse gas concentrations, but we could not find the effect of the concentration extent on drought occurrence projection. In addition, according to the results from this study, drought analysis results using single RCP scenario may have considerable uncertainty.
Agricultural drought monitoring using the satellite-based vegetation index
Baek, Seul-Gi ; Jang, Ho-Won ; Kim, Jong-Suk ; Lee, Joo-Heon ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 305~314
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.305
In this study, a quantitative assessment was carried out in order to identify the agricultural drought in time and space using the Terra MODIS remote sensing data for the agricultural drought. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were selected by MOD13A3 image which shows the changes in vegetation conditions. The land cover classification was made to show only vegetation excluding water and urbanized areas in order to collect the land information efficiently by Type1 of MCD12Q1 images. NDVI and EVI index calculated using land cover classification indicates the strong seasonal tendency. Therefore, standardized Vegetation Stress Index Anomaly (VSIA) of EVI were used to estimated the medium-scale regions in Korea during the extreme drought year 2001. In addition, the agricultural drought damages were investigated in the country`s past, and it was calculated based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using the data of the ground stations. The VSIA were compared with SPI based on historical drought in Korea and application for drought assessment was made by temporal and spatial correlation analysis to diagnose the properties of agricultural droughts in Korea.
Development of dam inflow simulation technique coupled with rainfall simulation and rainfall-runoff model
Kim, Tae-Jeong ; So, Byung-Jin ; Ryou, Min-Suk ; Kwon, Hyun-Han ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 315~325
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.315
Generally, a natural river discharge is highly regulated by the hydraulic structures, and the regulated flow is substantially different from natural inflow characteristics for the use of water resources planning. The natural inflow data are necessarily required for hydrologic analysis and water resources planning. This study aimed to develop an integrated model for more reliable simulation of daily dam inflow. First, a piecewise Kernel-Pareto distribution was used for rainfall simulation model, which can more effectively reproduce the low order moments (e.g. mean and median) as well as the extremes. Second, a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme was applied for the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model that is able to quantitatively assess uncertainties associated with model parameters. It was confirmed that the proposed modeling scheme is capable of reproducing the underlying statistical properties of discharge, and can be further used to provide a set of plausible scenarios for water budget analysis in water resources planning.
Flood inflow forecasting on HantanRiver reservoir by using forecasted rainfall
Yu, Myungsu ; Lee, Youngmok ; Yi, Jaeeung ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 327~333
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.327
Due to climate changes accelerated by global warming, South Korea has experienced regional climate variations as well as increasing severities and frequencies of extreme weather. The precipitation in South Korea during the summer season in 2013 was concentrated mainly in the central region; the maximum number of rainy days were recorded in the central region while the southern region had the minimum number of rainy days. As a result, much attention has been paid to the importance of flood control due to damage caused by spatiotemporal intensive rainfalls. In this study, forecast rainfall data was used for rapid responses to prevent disasters during flood seasons. For this purpose, the applicability of numerical weather forecast data was analyzed using the ground observation rainfall and inflow rate. Correlation coefficient, maximum rainfall intensity percent error and total rainfall percent error were used for the quantitative comparison of ground observation rainfall data. In addition, correlation coefficient, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, and standardized RMSE were used for the quantitative comparison of inflow rate. As a result of the simulation, the correlation coefficient up to six hours was 0.7 or higher, indicating a high correlation. Furthermore, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was positive until six hours, confirming the applicability of forecast rainfall.
Development and validation of poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generation web application across South Korea
Han, Jaemoon ; Kim, Dongkyun ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 335~346
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.335
This study produced the parameter maps of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) stochastic rainfall generation model across South Korea and developed and validated the web application that automates the process of rainfall generation based on the produced parameter maps. To achieve this purpose, three deferent sets of parameters of the MBLRP model were estimated at 62 ground gage locations in South Korea depending on the distinct purpose of the synthetic rainfall time series to be used in hydrologic modeling (i.e. flood modeling, runoff modeling, and general purpose). The estimated parameters were spatially interpolated using the Ordinary Kriging method to produce the parameter maps across South Korea. Then, a web application has been developed to automate the process of synthetic rainfall generation based on the parameter maps. For validation, the synthetic rainfall time series has been created using the web application and then various rainfall statistics including mean, variance, autocorrelation, probability of zero rainfall, extreme rainfall, extreme flood, and runoff depth were calculated, then these values were compared to the ones based on the observed rainfall time series. The mean, variance, autocorrelation, and probability of zero rainfall of the synthetic rainfall were similar to the ones of the observed rainfall while the extreme rainfall and extreme flood value were smaller than the ones derived from the observed rainfall by the degree of 16%-40%. Lastly, the web application developed in this study automates the entire process of synthetic rainfall generation, so we expect the application to be used in a variety of hydrologic analysis needing rainfall data.
Sensitive analysis of river geometry under various flow conditions in South Han River using GSTARS model
Ahn, Jungkyu ; Lee, Jong Mun ; Kim, Young Do ; Kang, Boosik ;
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, volume 49, issue 4, 2016, Pages 347~359
DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.347
Flow input from the basin will not remain the same as before due to climate changes. Since the predictions on river discharge due to climate change is given by scenarios, various discharge scenarios were prepared in this study. For a long term and reach prediction, semi-two dimensional sediment transport model, GSTARS, was used. The flood water surface elevations predicted by GSTARS model were analysed statistically and it was concluded that the model is applicable for the South Han River. Three stream tubes is the most suitable to simulate two dimensional river geometric change River geometric changes. For sediment load computation, Ackers and White equation and Yang equation were resonable. River will become narrower regardless of discharge variation, more discharge results in deeper channel.