• Title, Summary, Keyword: 수단분담모형

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A Study on the Modal Split Model Using Zonal Data (존 데이터 기반 수단분담모형에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Si-Kyun;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Ji-Eun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2012
  • This study introduces a new type of a modal split model that use zonal data instead of cost data as independent variables. It has been indicated that the ones using cost data have deficiencies in the multicollinearity of travel time and cost variables and unpredictability of independent variables. The zonal data employed in this study include (1) socioeconomic data, (2) land use data and (3) transportation system data. The test results showed that the proposed modal split model using zonal data performs better than the other does.

Development of an Integrated network model for Mode Choice and Trip Assignment (통합교통망 수단선택-통행배정모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 김현명;임용택;이승재
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 1999
  • 전통적인 교통계획 과정에서 이용되어 온 수요모형들은 대부분 수단선택과 통행배정을 나누어 실시하는 모형이 주를 이루어 왔다. 그러나 교통수단이 다양해짐에 따라 실제 통행자들은 통행 도중 환승을 통해 수단을 전환하는 경우가 발생하게 되며 이 경우 수단선택 과정과 통행배정 과정을 하나로 통합하여 분석할 필요가 있다. 따라서 기종점간 수단 분담율은 기점과 종점에서의 그 값이 다르지만 수단선택과 통행배정이 분리되어 있는 기존 모형을 적용할 경우, 출발과 도착시의 수단 분담율이 동일하게 나타나는 비현실적인 결과를 도출하게 된다. 이러한 문제는 통행수단을 통행의 기본단위로 보고, 수단통행량을 추정하기 때문에 그 수단을 이용하는 통행자들의 행태 대신 수단의 특성만이 모형화되기 때문이다. 따라서 기존의 교통계획 과정에서는 수단분담 과정과 통행배정과정이 분리됨에 따라 수단간 환승이 고려되지 않아 통행자들의 경로 구성과정을 정확히 표현하는데 어려움이 있었다. 또, 수단분담 모형으로 가장 많이 이용되는 로짓 모형의 경우 환승을 고려하면 비관련 대안간 독립성문제(CIA)가 발생하고, 환승경로 수요추정이 불가능해 사실상 통합 교통망과 같이 복수 수단이 운행하는 교통망은 분석하기 어렵게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이를 해결하기 위하여 사람통행(Person Trip)을 기반으로 하는 수단분담-통행배정 통합모형을 개발하고 기존의 결합모형과 그 결과를 비교하였다.

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Development and Application of the Mode Choice Models According to Zone Sizes (분석대상 규모에 따른 수단분담모형의 추정과 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Do-Gyeong;Jeon, Jang-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2011
  • Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.

A Technique of Forecasting Market Share of Transportation Modes after Introducing New Lines of Urban Rail Transit with Observed Mode Share Data (관측 교통수단 분담률 자료를 활용한 도시철도 신설 후 수단분담률 예측분석 기법)

  • Seo, Dong-Jeong;Kim, Ik-Ki;Lee, Tae-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2012
  • This study suggested a method of forecasting market-share of each mode after introducing new urban rail transit lines. The study reflected the observed market share of presently operating urban rail transit into forecasting process in order to improve accuracy in predicting market share of each modes. For more realistic representation of the forecasting model, we categorized O/D pairs according to attributes of trip distance, access time and number of transfers. The analysis results of traveler's mode choice behavior with observed data showed that the trip distances are longer, the share of urban rail tends to be higher, and that the number of transfers is fewer and the access times are lesser, the share of urban rail also tends to be higher. Then, incremental logit model was used in estimating mode choice probabilities for O/D pairs along with rail transit lines while utilizing observed market shares of each modes and differences in transit service level. As the next step, the market share of rail transit after introducing new rail transit lines was forecasted by using incremental logit model with the intial share values calculated the previous analysis step. It also reflected changes in level of service for automobile in highway due to changes in highway systems and changes in mode shares after introducing new lines of rail transit. It can be expected that the proposed method would more realistically duplicates phenomena of mode choice behavior for rail transit and that it would be more theoretically logical than the typical existing methods using SP data and incremental logit model or using addictive logit model in this country.

Development of International Passenger Travel Demand Models for the ASEAN Region (아세안지역의 국가간 여객통행수요 추정모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Mun, Jin-Su;Park, Jun-Hwan;Jung, Ho-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2008
  • Due to the limitations in the statistical data, the existing studies adopted rough methodologies with strong assumptions in the estimation of international passenger travel demand forecast in the ASEAN region. This study aims to develop international passenger travel demand models using scientific methodologies. This study proposes a direct demand model using the immigration and emigration data between countries in the region. This is because of the difficulty of estimating trip generation and trip distribution separately due to the data limitation in the region. As there does not exist the mode choice model for the region, this study estimates a mode choice model using the Stated Preference technique. The mode choice model is separated into three categories of models according to the range of distance between the origin and destination of travel; this is to reflect the different behavior in mode choice according to the travel distance. The result of model estimations suggests that the estimated models produce resonable results statistically. It is expected that the proposed models are useful for the future travel demand estimation in the ASEAN region.

A Bike Mode Share Estimation Model and Analysis of the Bike Demand Factor Effects (자전거 수단분담률 추정모형 구축 및 자전거 수요요인분석)

  • Lee, Gyu-Jin;Choe, Gi-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 2010
  • As the green transportation mode, revitalization of bike usage attracts remarkable public attention. For the acquirement of effective outcome, however, the concrete and close analysis about bike utilization characteristics should be arranged first. One result by MLTM(2009) is support this opinion; the bike mode share has been decreased whereas 9,170km of the bicycle path was improved(1995~2007). This study analyzed the bike mode share classified by trip types by using the 303,308 data of Household Travel Survey of Seoul Metropolitan Area, 2006. The highest mode share rate was induced by the institute attendee and Officetel resident as 3.75% and 3.13%, respectively. Also this study established the bike mode share estimation model of Seoul by logistic regression, and analyzed related factors and level of effectiveness related bike demand by calculation of odds ratio in terms of logistic regression coefficients. In conclusion, short trips, institutes district, parks, and Officetel residential area oriented policy should be effective on the revitalization of bike usage.

Development of Mode Choice Model for the Implementation of Next-generation High Speed Train(HEMU-430X) (차세대 고속열차 도입에 따른 수단분담모형 개발 및 적용방안)

  • LEE, Kwang Sub;CHUNG, Sung Bong;EOM, Jin Ki;NAMKUNG, Baek Kyu;KIM, Seok Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.461-469
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    • 2015
  • The next generation high-speed train, HEMU-430X, was developed and is now being tested. However, the existing mode choice models based on the guidelines for feasibility studies do not consider a high-speed train with a higher speed than KTX. This limitation might result in inaccurate demand forecasting. In this research, a stated preference survey was conducted in order to supplement the problem by considering the characteristics of HEMU-430X. Based on the survey results, this research developed two mode choice models, including a multinomial logit model and a nested logit model. For this purpose, the utility functions of travel time and travel costs were estimated using a Limdep 8.0 NLOGIT 3.0 package. After comparing the two models, it was concluded that the nested logit model is appropriate. The paper suggested a plan to implement the nested logit model and presented a policy implication.

Estimation of Optimal Modal Split Considering the Subsidy Policy - In the Case of Dual Mode Trailer (보조금 정책을 고려한 적정 수송 분담률 추정 모형 - Dual Mode Trailer(DMT) 사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Bum-Hwan;Kim, Chung-Soo;Lee, Kang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2009
  • There is need to reform the road-based logistic transportation system into the railway-based logistics transportation system in order to decrease the total social cost related with logistics transportation. And new transportation modes such as dual mode trailer (DMT) are under consideration, which are expected to decrease current market share of road. But, most of current studies about estimating economical efficiency are focused on developing the probabilistic choice model and then estimating the market share of each mode. We present an approach to compute the optimal market share of each mode in terms of total social cost. To do so, we suggest an optimization model capturing both user choice to maximize his utility and subsidy policy intended to minimize total social cost, simultaneously. Using this model, we present the optimal modal split of container freight.

Connectivity Analysis of KTX Stations according to KTX Connection Characteristic Variable and KTX Modal Split (고속철도 연계특성변수와 수단분담률에 따른 고속철도역 연계성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hyun-Ju;Kim, Byung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.503-509
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    • 2013
  • Since the opening of KTX, the number of people coming to KTX stations to use KTX has steadily increased. Passengers have a variety of access modes between a KTX station and their origin/destination. But there is no way to confirm the level of connection strength. So this study examines various connection characteristic variables that can show the connectivity, and examines influencing relationships, and chooses variables that affect connectivity by using a KTX modal split. We will suggest connectivity estimation models between a KTX station and origin/destination based on the selected connected variables.

Estimating Potential Impact of Bike Lane Implementation (Case study of Seoul Metropolitan City) (자전거전용차로 설치에 따른 기대효과 추정 (서울시 사례를 중심으로))

  • Sin, Hui-Cheol;Hwang, Gi-Yeon;Jo, Yong-Hak;Jeong, Seong-Yeop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2010
  • Environmental issues resulting from climate change and energy crises have become global issues, and cycling has gained greater popularity for sustainable transportation. Though many cities are trying to build bicycle roads, it is not easy to implement bicycle roads because there is little available space for bicycle facilities. Therefore, road diets have become more popular in Korea. However, there has been no intensive research to date of their impacts. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of road diets and construction of bike lanes. Every benefit, including energy benefit, environmental benefit, and health benefit is considered, while only time savings benefit has been considered in previous studies. The benefit analysis for the Seoul metropolitan area as a case study shows that road diets have a (1) time saving benefit for only five percent of the mode share and (2) enough total benefit even if bicycle mode share is less than two percent.