• Title, Summary, Keyword: 영화 흥행

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Predicting Financial Success of a Movie Using Multiple Regression Analysis (다중회귀 분석을 이용한 영화 흥행 예측)

  • Jeong, Hoe-Yun;Yang, Hyung-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • pp.275-278
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    • 2013
  • 영화의 흥행 요소를 파악하여 영화의 흥행 여부를 예측하는 것은 영화의 수익성 부분에서 아주 중요하다. 영화 시장이 과거와는 다르게 증가함에 따라, 다양한 영화 흥행에 관한 예측 연구들이 개발되었다. 본 논문에서는 영화 흥행 요소들을 수집하고 다중회귀 분석을 통해서 유의수준을 만족하는 흥행 요소들을 선택한다. 그 후, 이러한 요소들을 예측 방법들의 입력값으로 사용하여 영화 흥행을 예측한다. 성능을 비교하기 위해 본 논문에서 제안한 방법과 현재 개발된 영화 흥행 예측 방법(다중회귀, 의사결정트리, 인공신경망)들을 정확도와 평균제곱근오차를 통해 예측 모형의 성능을 비교한다. 그 결과, 다중 회귀 분석을 통해 유의한 흥행요소들만을 고려한 예측 방법의 정확도가 모든 흥행 요소들을 고려한 예측 방법보다 평균 8.2% 향상되었고, 현재까지 개발된 영화 흥행 예측 방법보다 더 높은 예측 성능을 보여준다.

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A Comparison Study of the Determinants of Performance of Motion Pictures: Art Film vs. Commercial Film (영화 유형별 영화 흥행 성과 예측 요인의 비교 연구: 예술 영화와 상업 영화 비교를 중심으로)

  • Kim, So-Young;Im, Seung-Hee;Jung, Ye-Seul
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.381-393
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this research is to identify the different determinants according to the types of motion pictures; art film and commercial film. We found that the regression equations of two types of motions pictures are structurally different. More specifically, we identified that the number of screens, viewers' evaluation, and genres have a significant relationship with the performance of motion pictures both in the commercial and art film. However, director, ratings, critics, power of agency, nationality, and the timing of release affect the performance of motion pictures just on the art films.

Determinants of Movie Success from Foreign Countries in Korea (한국 개봉 미국 제외 외국 영화 흥행 결정 요인)

  • Wang, Bing Xin;Chon, Bum Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.96-105
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    • 2016
  • This study examined determinants of movie success from foreign countries except the U.S. in Korea. This research is based on analyses of data based on 500 movies between 2004 and 2013. The major results are following; firstly, in terms of movie success, there were significant differences among three attributes including the origin of countries, genres and distributors. Although determinants of movie success from Japan were animation genre and major distributors, they were action genre and major distributors for European countries. Determinants of movie success from other countries was only animation genre. However, there were no any explanation factions for Chinese movies.

The Effects of the Existence and Type of Originals on Box-office Performance (원작의 유무와 형태가 영화 흥행에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Yun-Jeong;Shin, Hyung-Deok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2013
  • This study focused on whether the existence and type of originals have any effects on box-office performance of the movie. Cultural products have characteristics of experience goods of which consumers hardly know the value of the products before they actually experience the products. To reduce the uncertainty, movie producers may want to use existing contents already made for other type of cultural products, which is generally called of One Source Multi Use. Using 381 Korean box-office data during January 2010 and September 2012, this study found that, first, the existence of original affects positively the movie's box office performance, second, the fiction based original has a positive effect on the movie's box office performance while cartoon and movie/TV based originals do not, and third, the movie type(commercial movie) positively moderates the relationship between fiction based original and movie performance. This study showed that box-office performance is not only affected by the characteristics of the movie itself, but also affected by other conditions including the use of existing originals created for other purposes.

Assessing Box Office Performance Using Movie Scripts Text Mining (영화 스크립트 텍스트 마이닝을 통한 흥행성과 예측)

  • Ha, Hyunsoo;Hwang, Byeong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • pp.556-558
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    • 2016
  • 영화 흥행 실패의 리스크를 줄이기 위해 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표가 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 영화 스크립트의 텍스트를 분석하여 흥행성과를 예측하는 기법을 제안한다. 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표는 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액으로 설정하였다. 실험은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2016년 8월까지 개봉한 영화중에서 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액을 기준으로 상위 50위까지의 영화 스크립트를 분석하여 진행했다. 실험을 통해 영화 제작에 앞서 스크립트 분석만을 활용한 영화 흥행성과 예측이 가능함을 보였다.

Changes in Review Length Based on the Popularity of Movies Using Big Data (빅데이터를 활용한 영화 흥행에 따른 리뷰길이 변화)

  • Cho, Yonghee;Park, Yiseul;Kim, Hea-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.367-375
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    • 2018
  • The study aims to determine which groups leave longer(more active) online reviews(comments) on the film by separating groups, one that satisfied with the movie while the other group dissatisfied with the movie. The data used were rating scores and reviews(comments) from Naver Movie API, and break-even point data provided by Korea Film Commission. We analyzed the relationship between movie rating and review length, before and after movie opening, the characteristics of review length according to the box office, and whether the movie rating affects the review length.

A Structural Analysis of the Movie Reviews (네티즌의 흥행 영화 리뷰에 포함된 감정 동사 이용 특성 연구)

  • Park, Ji Yeon;Chon, Bum Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2014
  • This study examined the characteristics of movie reviews based on emotional expressions, using the structural analysis. Major results were as follows; firstly, the most cited emotional expression was 'fun'. Fun was the important discriminator for evaluating movies. Secondly, cluster analysis results found that although Korean movies were clustered by many emotional expressions such as fun, immersion and impression, foreign movies were grouped by joust an emotional expression including fun. Internet users tended to divide foreign movie into two kinds of movies such as fun movie and boring movies.

A Study for the Development of Motion Picture Box-office Prediction Model (영화 흥행 결정 요인과 흥행 성과 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Yon-Hyong;Hong, Jeong-Han
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.859-869
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    • 2011
  • Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.

Factors Affecting Box Office Performance in China (중국내 극장 개봉영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Ki, Seon;Yu, Sae-Kyung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.357-366
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the factors affecting box office performance of 200 movies released at the Chinese theater in 2015. The results showed that main actor power, online rating, production power, and Chinese film were sighificant factors which influenced box office, while the distribution power, genre, IP utilization and integration of production and distribution were insignificant. These results mean that online marketing factors such as the popularity index of the main actors evaluated on the internet and the online rating are affecting box office performances in Chinese theaters.

Analysis of Voice Signal Feature of the Korean Representative a Movie Actoress 4 (대한민국 대표 여성 영화배우 4인의 음성적 특징 분석)

  • Kim, Bong-Hyun;Lee, Se-Hwan;Ka, Min-Kyoung;Cho, Dong-Uk
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • pp.723-726
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    • 2009
  • 영화산업은 삶의 질을 향상시키고 있는 현대 사회의 시대적 반영에 부응하는 문화산업으로 많은 관심을 받고 있다. 이러한 영화산업에서 흥행의 성공여부는 영화산업의 발전과 결부되는 부분이라 매우 중요하게 인식하고 있다. 흥행을 좌우하는 지표에는 다양한 요소들이 존재하며 그 중에서 주연배우의 특징과 영화의 본질이 맞을 때 성공적인 영화라 평가할 수 있는 일부분의 지표라 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 한국 영화에서 대표적인 흥행 마술사라 불리우고 있는 여성 영화배우 4인에 대한 음성분석을 통해 영화의 성공에 미치는 요소들과의 상호 연관성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 대표적 여성 영화배우인 김혜수, 엄정화, 전도연, 문소리의 음성 분석을 통해 이들이 주연으로 출연한 영화의 흥행과 상관관계를 분석하였다.

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