• Title, Summary, Keyword: autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model

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A Study on the relationship analysis between the K-REITs loaning rate and interest rate variables (K-REITs의 차입이자율과 금리 변수 간 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Jin;Lee, Joo-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.676-686
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the long term relationship between the K-REITs' lending rate and interest rate variables based on ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and also examined the short term relationship based on the ARDL-ECM model. In the results of the empirical test, there is a co-integration relationship among the K-REITs' lending rate, 3 year government bond (rate), 3 year government bond (rate), corporation bond (rate) (AA-, 3year) and general fund loan rate. This means that the K-REITs' lending rate is related to the long term interest rate. The corporate general fund loan rate has a significant correlation with the K-REITs' lending rate in the long term relation and short term adjustment process. The establishment of a management plan by the REITs considering the trends in the corporate general fund loan rate in the decision making process for finance sector borrowings can be practically helpful for the K-REITs.

The Dynamic Relationship of Domestic Credit and Stock Market Liquidity on the Economic Growth of the Philippines

  • CAMBA, Abraham C. Jr.;CAMBA, Aileen L.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2020
  • The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

The role of Patent on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence in Vietnam

  • PHAM, Nga Thi;PHAM, Huong Thi Thu
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.77-82
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In the period of international integration, how is the implementation of intellectual property regulation in developing countries? Do intellectual property rights help attract more Foreign direct investment (FDI)? This study aims to show the effect of intellectual property rights, reflect in the number of patent registered (Patent distribution into two components: Patent_residents and Patent_non-residents) on FDI attraction in Vietnam. Research design, data and methodology: Using Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the data collected from 1990 to 2018 with EViews version 9 software. Conclusions: The results indicate that the number of patent protection has a positive effect on FDI in both short term and long term. In particular, only patent registration of foreign individuals and organizations has a significant positive effect on attracting FDI, while that of Vietnamese patents is not statistically significant. From the results of this study, we provide some recommendations to help attract FDI based on raising awareness of intellectual property rights: Increase international cooperation for innovation to learn and encourage patent; Improve the capac ity of inventing as well as the ability to register patents of Vietnamese people; Government agencies are tasked to support a nd review registration procedures; Encouraging patent registration based on the patent.

The Impact of Nuclear Power Generation on Wholesale Electricity Market Price (원자력발전이 전력가격에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jung, Sukwan;Lim, Nara;Won, DooHwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.629-655
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    • 2015
  • Nuclear power generation is a major power source which accounts for more than 30% of domestic electricity generation. Electricity market needs to secure stability of base load. This study aimed at analyzing relationships between nuclear power generation and wholesale electricity price (SMP: System Marginal Price) in Korea. For this we conducted ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach and Granger causality test. We found that in terms of total effects nuclear power supply had a positive relationship with SMP while nuclear capacity had a negative relationship with SMP. There is a unidirectional Granger causality from nuclear power supply to SMP while the reverse was not. Nuclear power is closely related to SMP and provides useful information for decision making.

The Impact of Exchange Rate on Exports and Imports: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Nga Hong;NGUYEN, Hat Dang;VO, Loan Thi Kim;TRAN, Cuong Quoc Khanh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2021
  • The exchange rate is considered a tool improving the volume of exports and reducing imports. This paper aims to determine the impact of the exchange rate on exports and imports between Vietnam and the United States in the context of the trade war. The research uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Model in the time-series data from 2010:1 to 2020:9. The ARDL's results support that real exchange rate impact on export and import volumes, but less than the trade war. The trade war helps trade balance increase 0.35%, while the exchange rate increases trade balance 0.191% when the Vietnamese currency devalues 1% in the long run. In the short term, the real exchange rate makes the trade balance decrease. Therefore, the J curve exists between Vietnam and the U.S. The NARDL expresses that the exchange rate is asymmetric both in the short term and the long term. The findings of this study point to two important elements. Firstly, the exchange rate plays a minor role in exports and imports. Secondly, trade war plays a vital role in increasing exports and imports volume between two countries, and the J curve exists between the two countries.

Impact of Debts on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Application of ARDL Model

  • Hossain, Muhammad Amir;Shirin, Shabnam
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2016
  • This study attempts to investigate the effects of different types of debts on economic growth in Bangladesh using time series data spanning from 2000 to 2015. In this study, the RDL model has been applied to determine the long run relationship among the selected variables. The result of the ARDL model shows that there exists a long term relationship between economic growth and the debt variables. It was evident from the findings that there exists bidirectional causality between public sector external debt and economic growth. Causality between private external debt and economic growth has been found to be insignificant. However, causality between domestic debt and economic growth showed a unidirectional causality from domestic debt to economic growth and not vice versa. Causality tests suggest that impact of domestic debt on economic growth is more effective compared to external debts.

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The Dynamic Analysis between Environmental Quality, Energy Consumption, and Income (소득 및 에너지소비와 환경오염의 관계에 대한 분석)

  • Jung, Sukwan;Kang, Sangmok
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.97-122
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    • 2013
  • The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.

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Impact of Malaysia's Capital Market and Determinants on Economic Growth

  • Ali, Md. Arphan;Fei, Yap Su
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates the impact of Malaysia's capital market and other key determinants on Economic Growth from the period of 1988 to 2012. The key determinants studied are foreign direct investment and real interest rate. This study also examines the long run and short run relationship between the economic growth and capital market, foreign direct investment, and real interest rate by using bound testing cointegration of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) version of ARDL model. The empirical results of the study suggest that there is long- run cointegration among the capital market, foreign direct investment, real Interest rate and economic growth. The result also suggests that capital market and real interest rate have positive impact on economic growth in the short run and long run. Foreign direct investment does not show positive impact on economic growth in the short run but it does in the long run.

The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Analysis

  • Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan;Wizarat, Shahida;Lau, Wee-Yeap
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2016
  • This study uses an endogenous economic growth model to determine the long run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in China by using the data 1975-2009.It contributes to the literature by developing trade openness index. An autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and rolling regression method are employed. This study tests the link between trade openness and economic growth in the case of China by using the framework of endogenous economic growth model. This study also employs the rolling window regression method in order to examine the stability of coefficients throughout the sample span. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and rolling regression method are used. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness (i.e. Both individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index) are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. Our results indicate that trade openness as measured by individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. However, results from the rolling window suggest that trade openness is negatively linked to economic growth only for a number of years.

Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in Malaysia: An ARDL Approach

  • YOONG, Foo Tzen;LATIP, Abdul Rahman Abdul;SANUSI, Nur Azura;KUSAIRI, Suhal
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to find out the time-series nexus of public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. For an upper-middle income country, Malaysia had experienced over 50% ratio of debt to GDP since 2009 until now. The question arises is whether this trend is healthy to the economy. With a focus into the debt-to-GDP ratio from 1970-2015, this study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. This study used secondary data by collecting time-series data (1970-2015) from the World Bank Data and Bank Negara Malaysia. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied in this study to examine the relationship between debt and economic growth. Based on ARDL framework, it shows that there is a long-run effect between the debt and economic growth in Malaysia. While the significance value of Error Correction Term shows that there is a long-run adjustment in the short run. Generally, this study found government expenditures, in the long run, strongly influence the GDP per capita. Through the findings, the government expenditures could increase the GDP per capita. The study also reveals that any increment of the debt ratio will result in reduction of the GDP per capita.